Is U-Haul a Bargain After Shares Fall 29% and Fleet Investment News?
November 7, 2025
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Curious if U-Haul Holding’s recent stock drop has tipped it into bargain territory? Let’s break down what really matters when sizing up whether this moving giant is undervalued or overrated.
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U-Haul Holding shares have had a volatile time, falling 3.5% over the last month and dropping 23.1% year to date, with the stock down 29.0% over the past 12 months.
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Market chatter is swirling around U-Haul Holding’s attempts to adapt to shifting demand across the moving and storage industry. Recent news highlights ongoing investments in its rental fleet and facility expansion, which is fueling debate about how quickly the company can convert spending into sustained growth.
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On our standard six-point valuation check, U-Haul Holding scores 0 out of 6 for being undervalued. That’s just where the numbers game begins. It is the kind of score that often prompts a look at alternative valuation angles, which we’ll explore further on, along with a smarter way to frame “fair value” at the end of the article.
U-Haul Holding scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today, using a rate that reflects the risks involved. This approach helps investors gauge what a business is worth now based on the cash it is expected to generate in the years ahead.
For U-Haul Holding, the DCF model starts with the company’s latest reported Free Cash Flow (FCF), which is -$1.73 Billion as of the last twelve months. Analysts expect FCF to turn positive by 2027, reaching around $73 Million. Looking further ahead, estimates suggest that by 2035, U-Haul’s FCF could grow to approximately $436 Million. These long-range projections go beyond analyst forecasts and rely on trend-based extrapolation.
According to this method, the DCF model calculates an intrinsic value of $22.05 per share for U-Haul Holding. With the current share price suggesting the stock is trading roughly 140.9% above its DCF-based fair value, the stock appears significantly overvalued using this approach.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests U-Haul Holding may be overvalued by 140.9%. Discover 860 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a popular metric for valuing profitable companies because it directly compares a company’s share price to its earnings, helping investors judge how much they’re paying for each dollar of profit. Companies expected to grow quickly or carry lower risk are typically valued at higher PE ratios. Those with slower growth or greater risks trade at lower multiples.
U-Haul Holding is currently trading at a PE ratio of 44.7x. This stands out when compared to the transportation industry’s average of 26.5x and the average of similar peers at 29.5x. These comparisons suggest that the market is pricing U-Haul at a significant premium, potentially anticipating stronger future growth or accepting a higher level of risk.
Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” is a proprietary measure designed to capture not just industry averages or peer group multiples, but also factors unique to U-Haul such as its projected earnings growth, profit margins, market capitalization, and risk profile. By incorporating these company-specific dynamics, the Fair Ratio offers a more tailored benchmark for what a reasonable PE for U-Haul should be. This approach does not rely solely on broad-based comparisons.
Comparing U-Haul’s actual PE of 44.7x to its Fair Ratio, there is a considerable premium. This indicates that the stock appears overvalued using this approach.
Result: OVERVALUED
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1408 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are a powerful tool for investors because they let you define the story behind a company’s numbers by articulating your perspective on its future revenue, earnings, and margins, all of which shape your personal view of fair value.
With Narratives, you connect the company’s story and operating realities to your own financial forecast and the resulting fair value, turning abstract numbers into a concrete, evidence-based thesis. They are simple to use and accessible directly within Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share their views and insights.
This approach helps you decide when to buy or sell by making it easy to compare your Narrative-based fair value with the current share price. This ensures your investment decisions are grounded in your own logic rather than just consensus or market sentiment. Narratives dynamically update as new news, financial results, or industry changes come in, helping your analysis stay current.
For example, one U-Haul Holding Narrative expects operational improvements and self-storage growth to justify a fair value of $120.00, while another, more cautious viewpoint cites competitive and regulatory pressures to arrive at just $74.25.
Do you think there’s more to the story for U-Haul Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include UHAL.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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