ETH price has plunged 35% from levels of around $4,700 in early October to around $3,000 now. Based on the recent historical data and past price correction patterns, Ethereum’s current downtrend appears to follow a familiar pattern of sharp corrections followed by periods of consolidation or recovery. To understand how low it can go from here, let’s analyze its past five years’ behavior during similar drops.

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Historical Pattern of Price Drops Over 20% in a Month

Magnitude of Decline:

In the last five years, Ethereum has experienced multiple instances where its monthly decline exceeded 20%. Notably, in May-Jun 2021, ETH plunged over 40%, and similar sharp drops occurred following macroeconomic upheavals, such as tariff fears or broader market sell-offs. For example, in October 2023 and May 2024, ETH faced declines of roughly 20-25%, with occasional brief dips below $3,000.

Maximum Drop from Peak Levels:

The largest decline historically was over 90%, notably during the late 2018 crypto winter, when ETH fell close to $85 from its high of nearly $1,367. In 2022, the correction was around 70% from its peak of $3,840 to $1,190. Recent corrections, such as in October 2025, saw Ethereum drop over 35%.

Recovery Time:

After major declines, ETH’s recovery periods ranged from several months to over a year. For example, following the 2018 crash, it took approximately 24-36 months for ETH to regain previous highs. In more recent corrections, the recovery has been quicker — about 6-12 months — aided by macroeconomic stabilization and renewed investor interest.

What does this history imply for current levels?

The current sell-off, with ETH dropping over 20%, signals a typical correction pattern rather than a fundamental shift in long-term value. Historically, such corrections have found support around key psychological and on-chain support zones near $3,000 to $2,700. If similar patterns play out, ETH could:

Find support around $2,700-$3,000, given past lows and strong on-chain support levels.

Potentially fall further to $2,500-$2,700 if macroeconomic fears or macro sell-offs, like broad risk asset declines, intensify. Also, see – Why ETH May Continue Outpacing Bitcoin

How Low Can ETH Go?

Based on historical declines and current macro trends, Ethereum could potentially decline by an additional 10-20% from current levels, possibly reaching around $2,700-$2,800 if broader market sentiment worsens. However, past recoveries following similar drops suggest that once support is established, a rebound could occur within 6-12 months, especially if macro conditions stabilize.

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Final thought:

While history indicates Ethereum has seen drops of over 70%, such deep declines are less frequent and usually occur during extreme market crashes. In typical correction scenarios, a decline of 30% or higher could be followed by a recovery period mirroring past patterns—roughly 6-12 months—unless macroeconomic factors change dramatically.

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