Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has triggered a classic technical warning. On November 16, 2025, its 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross. The crossover came six weeks after Bitcoin hit a record high near $126,000.

Historically, a death cross signals weakening momentum, but it’s often a lagging indicator that appears after substantial drawdowns. Previous crosses in this cycle actually marked local lows.

Bitcoin’s plunge from $126,000 to below $90,000, combined with wider macro headwinds, has traders asking whether this time is different. Here’s what the death cross means, what’s driving the selloff, and why this signal might not follow past patterns.

Bitcoin Death Cross Explained: What It Means for Traders

A death cross appears when a short-term moving average falls below a longer-term moving average, signaling that short-term momentum’s turned negative. In Bitcoin’s case, the 50-day average dipped under the 200-day on November 16, while the price fell to around $93,000. Technical traders view this as a bearish signal because it shows sellers have dominated recent sessions. Although death crosses aren’t automatic crash indicators.

Data compiled by analyst Mario Nawfal shows that over the past decade, returns in the first three weeks after a death cross are evenly split between gains and losses. Two to three months later, average recoveries range from 15% to 26%. Some cycles saw death crosses precede rallies to new highs, while others signaled deeper bear markets.

Bitcoin’s 25% Drop: The 2025 Death Cross Context

The current crossover follows a 25% decline from Bitcoin’s October 6 peak of $126,000. Compared to the April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin lost 30% in 79 days, this drop is shorter and slightly smaller. Bitcoin slid from $107,500 on November 11 to an intraday low near $89,000, erasing all year-to-date gains. The fall dragged market sentiment into “extreme fear” and pushed technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index deep into oversold territory.

Macro drivers shifted alongside price action. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. 

Record outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amplified downward pressure. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $1.26 billion in net outflows in mid-November. ETF demand turned choppy, with flat or negative prints coinciding with thinning liquidity. On-chain, long-term holders who bought before 2023 started taking profits after over 200% gains. These structural sell flows exacerbated the decline.

Mt. Gox Fears and Technical Selling Accelerate Bitcoin Decline

Beyond macro headwinds and profit-taking, two other factors weighed on Bitcoin. First, the death cross itself can accelerate selling in thin markets. When the 50-day average slips beneath the 200-day during weak liquidity, momentum traders often de-risk, triggering multi-week drawdowns.

Second, large wallet movements linked to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy unnerved traders. On November 18, more than 10,600 BTC (worth roughly $953 million) moved from Mt. Gox wallets. Although blockchain data suggests these transfers weren’t market sales, the perception alone spurred liquidations. Over 185,000 trading accounts were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling more than $1 billion in forced sell orders.

This combination of technical selling, ETF outflows, macro headwinds, and Mt. Gox jitters tightened liquidity and sparked a flight to safety. The result is a self-reinforcing loop: weaker demand leads to lower prices, triggering more risk reduction. Until flows stabilize, the path of least resistance remains downward.

Why It Might Be Different This Time

Despite the negative backdrop, several factors suggest the current death cross may not result in a prolonged bear market. Historical context offers important perspectives. This is the fourth death cross since the current cycle began in 2023, and each previous instance—September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025—coincided with major local lows. 

In each case, Bitcoin rebounded sharply after initial weakness. The current pullback—41 days and 25%—is shorter and milder than the April selloff, suggesting the market may already be through the worst.

Analyst sentiment appears more balanced. Crypto analyst Colin argued on X that the latest death cross is ironically bullish, occurring just as Bitcoin touched the lower boundary of a megaphone pattern—a historically bullish sign of a bottom. He expects a short-term bounce and points to the Federal Reserve’s potential end of quantitative tightening and possible rate cuts as catalysts.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen confirms the cross and notes that previous crosses often mark local lows. However, he cautions that if Bitcoin doesn’t bounce within a week, another leg down could occur before a larger rally. The statistical evidence echoes this balanced view. 

Historical data show that one to three weeks after a death cross, returns are nearly 50/50 between gains and losses. Two to three months later, average gains are significant. Long-term outcomes vary, but the median scenario suggests recovery is plausible. Medium-term projections point to a 15-27% rebound over the next few months if historical patterns hold. This indicates the death cross could be less ominous if macro conditions ease.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch: Technical and Macro Catalysts

From a technical standpoint, traders are watching several support and resistance zones. The $92,000-$94,000 range is a critical level that, once broken, shifts from support to resistance. Major support sits at $74,000-$76,000, aligned with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next unfilled liquidity pocket around $86,000-$88,000 remains a live risk if flows don’t improve.

On the upside, reclaiming the 200-day moving average would signal renewed momentum. Momentum indicators show the RSI is oversold, hinting at a potential short-term rebound.

Beyond charts, the health of spot ETF flows is crucial. Multi-day negative or flat flows have coincided with fragility in order books. A series of positive net inflows could stabilize price action and restore confidence.

On the macro front, traders will monitor the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes and rate decisions. A dovish shift could ease pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, the resolution of Mt. Gox repayments and the speed of ETF adoption will influence supply and demand dynamics.