“I don’t actually think the Fed’s going to cut in December,” O’Leary, also known as “Mr Wonderful,” told Cointelegraph this week.

O’Leary’s prediction goes against market expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week, with traders currently pricing in a near-90% chance of the Fed cutting rates for the third time since September.

“I think there are lots of reasons why they might not [cut],” O’Leary said, pointing to “a lot of inflation in the system” and the Fed’s “dual mandate [of] full employment and inflation … And so the tariffs are starting to take hold and input costs.”

However, O’Leary added that whether the Fed cuts interest rates or not in December won’t “make a difference to bitcoin,” over the long term.

“I’m not investing that way. I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates,” O’Leary said.

Bitcoin and crypto traders are watching closely for the delayed PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could reassure traders of an interest rate cut next week.

“Ahead of the PCE release, the market has entered a compressed-volatility, wait-and-see structure, with bitcoin’s key battleground concentrated between $91,000 to $95,000,” Bitunix analysts wrote in an emailed note.

“If the data confirm continued disinflation, the probability of a year-end rebound will rise; otherwise, the choppy structure is likely to persist, with capital flows shifting back toward defensive and short-duration positioning.”

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Bitcoin’s drop back toward $90,000 has already sapped confidence for some crypto market watchers.

“There is a lot of speculation around the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, where another rate cut could further keep momentum moving in the right direction,” Koinly chief executive Robin Singh said in emailed comments.

“Investors should be cautious not to get ahead of themselves. We’ve seen many market fakeouts before, where bitcoin quickly gives back most of its gains. On top of that, December is historically a quiet month in terms of bitcoin price performance.

“Given how far bitcoin fell short of where the high optimists expected it to be this December, another price decline now, especially if this rally proves to be a fakeout, wouldn’t do sentiment any favors.”