Investing in Hydro One (TSE:H) five years ago would have delivered you a 113% gain

December 12, 2025

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Hydro One Limited (TSE:H) share price is 83% higher than it was five years ago, which is more than the market average. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 18% in the last year.

Let’s take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they’ve been consistent with shareholders returns.

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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Hydro One actually saw its EPS drop 6.5% per year.

This means it’s unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.

On the other hand, Hydro One’s revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 4.3% over the last five years. It’s quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:H Earnings and Revenue Growth December 12th 2025

We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It’s always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Hydro One will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Hydro One, it has a TSR of 113% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

Hydro One provided a TSR of 21% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that’s still a gain, and it’s actually better than the average return of 16% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we’ve identified 2 warning signs for Hydro One (1 is a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.

Of course Hydro One may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

 

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