XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) kicked off 2026 with a 30% rally that outpaced Bitcoin and Ethereum. But two legendary technical analysts are pumping the brakes. John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, called XRP’s chart structure “weaker” than Bitcoin’s. Peter Brandt, a veteran trader known for precise pattern analysis, posted a cryptic chart “without comment” that suggests the rally may lack follow-through without a breakout above $3.50.

The divergence between XRP’s strong price action and cautious technical readings sets up a critical test. Bulls see the rally as proof of institutional rotation but bears see a reactive move vulnerable to reversal. The next few weeks will determine whether XRP can sustain momentum independently or remain tethered to Bitcoin’s direction.

John Bollinger’s XRP Warning: Why the Technical Pattern Looks “Weaker”

XRP rallied roughly 32% in the first week of January, reaching $2.40 before pulling back. The surge made it the best-performing major cryptocurrency over that span, outpacing Bitcoin’s 6% gain and Ethereum’s 10% rise. Yet John Bollinger sees cause for concern beneath the surface.

Bollinger compared XRP’s chart structure to Bitcoin’s and found it lacking. “Ripple, strong lift, but the pattern is weaker,” he posted on January 6, 2026. “BTC > ETH > XRP for now.” His analysis centers on the quality of the base and the volatility compression that typically precedes sustainable breakouts.

Bitcoin’s chart showed what Bollinger called a “near-perfect” setup: a clear base around $85,000, a tight Bollinger Band squeeze, and a clean breakout. XRP’s chart, by contrast, displays a “noisier” volatility profile. The BandWidth indicator did not compress to the same historical extremes before the January surge. That matters because sustained rallies typically emerge from periods of compressed volatility, not reactive spikes.

The absence of a textbook squeeze suggests XRP’s move may be riding broader market momentum rather than signaling independent strength. Bollinger acknowledged the “strong lift” but warned traders not to confuse vertical price action with structural durability.

Peter Brandt’s Cryptic Warning Suggest XRP Might Underperform

Veteran trader Peter Brandt added to the cautionary chorus with a characteristically minimalist post. On January 5, 2026, he shared an XRP price chart with just two words: “Without comment.” For traders who follow Brandt’s style, the silence spoke volumes.

The accompanying chart showed XRP remains range-bound on the weekly timeframe despite the daily breakout. Since hitting $3.39 in January 2025, XRP has shuffled between the upper and lower bounds of a widening channel. Brandt’s implied message: the rally looks impressive on shorter timeframes but has not broken the broader consolidation pattern.

In Brandt’s view, XRP needs to clear $3.50 to confirm a genuine breakout. Below that level, the rally remains vulnerable to profit-taking from investors who accumulated near $2.50 and $3.00. If those holders decide to exit as prices approach their cost basis, selling pressure could reverse recent gains.

Brandt’s skepticism contrasts with some analysts who interpreted his chart post as bullish. It was not. Both Bollinger and Brandt are urging caution, just through different lenses. Bollinger focuses on volatility structure; while Brandt focuses on price range and breakout confirmation.

Will XRP’s January Rally Reverse: Who’s Right—Bollinger or Brandt?

XRP’s 30% January surge coincided with renewed institutional interest. Trading volume spiked to $7.7 billion, well above the 30-day average. Spot XRP ETFs drew nearly $100 million in the first days of the year, pushing cumulative inflows past $1.3 billion.

CNBC labeled XRP “the hottest crypto trade of 2026.” The token briefly surpassed BNB to become the third-largest cryptocurrency. Exchange reserves dropped to multi-year lows, suggesting long-term holders are accumulating.

But as Bollinger and Brandt pointed out, the rally closely tracked Bitcoin’s push toward $100,000, raising questions about whether XRP can sustain momentum independently. If Bitcoin stalls or corrects, XRP’s recent gains may prove fragile. The correlation cuts both ways: XRP benefits from broad crypto enthusiasm but struggles to attract capital when Bitcoin dominates flows.

The XRP/BTC ratio is approaching a potential breakout above the monthly Ichimoku cloud for the first time since 2018, according to chart analyst “The Great Mattsby.” That pattern historically signals potential outperformance against Bitcoin. But spot price action remains sensitive to liquidity pockets and stop-driven moves.

Technical Levels to Watch: $2.28 Resistance and $1.97 Support

XRP currently trades near $2.10, consolidating after the early January rally. Two levels define the near-term battle between bulls and bears.

On the upside, resistance clusters between $2.28 and $2.41. The $2.28 level marks where the most recent selloff began and represents a heavy supply zone. A decisive daily close above this level would signal that near-term selling pressure is weakening and open the path toward $2.50 and eventually $3.00.

On the downside, support at $1.97 is critical. This level has absorbed selling pressure repeatedly in recent weeks. Holding above it keeps the broader bullish structure intact. A break below would signal that the correction is deepening and could lead to a retest of $1.77 or lower.

For Brandt’s breakout thesis to play out, XRP would need to clear $3.50. That remains a distant target from current levels and would require sustained buying pressure across multiple weeks. Without that confirmation, the rally remains a move within a larger range rather than the start of a new trend.

XRP Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Push to $4-$7 or Will Bears Win at $2?

Looking ahead, XRP’s trajectory depends on whether the quick-fire January rally represents genuine momentum or a reactive spike within a broader consolidation. Both Bollinger and Brandt suggest the latter until proven otherwise.

Bulls point to declining exchange reserves, steady ETF inflows, and improving regulatory clarity as reasons for optimism. If those tailwinds continue and XRP breaks above $2.41, the next targets lie at $3.00, $3.50, and potentially $4.20. A sustained move through $3.50 would validate the breakout thesis and attract momentum buyers.

Bears argue the rally lacks the volatility compression and base-building that precede durable trends. If XRP fails to hold $1.97 and breaks below, it could enter a prolonged consolidation phase or retrace further toward $1.77. In that scenario, the bullish thesis would require a reset.

The resolution likely comes within weeks. Traders should watch for a daily close above $2.41 to confirm bullish continuation or a break below $1.97 to signal renewed downside risk. Until one of those triggers, XRP remains caught between strong momentum and cautious technical readings.