Louisiana has been among the nation’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters due to its heavy industry, but new data shows the state may be at least temporarily bucking a trend.

While climate-warming emissions increased nationwide last year, Louisiana’s share has slightly declined over the past few years and was relatively flat in 2025, the preliminary data from an independent research group shows.

Any reduction in greenhouse gases classifies as good news. But industry and environmental analysts caution that Louisiana’s figures should be taken with a heavy dose of caution.

The uptick in nationwide emissions reverses a trend of decreases over the past two years, note analysts at the Rhodium Group, which used U.S Environmental Protection Agency data for its report. Much of the increase was due to utilities burning more coal to help meet the growing power needs of artificial intelligence data centers and residents heating their homes during cold winter weather, the analysts say.

But some of the underlying factors are different in Louisiana.

At the national level, power generation drives greenhouse gas emissions, said David Dismukes, professor emeritus at the LSU Center for Energy Studies. But nearly 60% of Louisiana’s carbon emissions came from industry as of 2023.

“We have a much higher industrial base than the average state and we also have a lower population,” said Dismukes. “Where industry goes is where our greenhouse gas emissions are going to go in the state.” 

It is precisely for that reason that the reductions may come as a surprise to some.

The state has welcomed a variety of industrial plants in recent years, from a booming liquefied natural gas export sector to continued petrochemical production along the Mississippi River corridor. A range of projects are also slated to begin operations in the coming years, such as a nearly $6 billion Hyundai steel mill and Meta’s power-hungry AI data center.  

Dismukes attributes Louisiana’s decreasing emissions to improved efficiency when it comes to both power generation and industry. He highlighted utilities phasing out old generators and replacing them with newer, less polluting, models. 

“Even though it’s natural gas and it’s not renewable, we’re emitting far less greenhouse gas emissions for that power generation,” Dismukes said. 

The same is true on the industrial side, Dismukes said, as Louisiana expands its productive capacity without making substantial changes in emissions at ammonia plants, methanol plants and refineries. Greg Upton, the current director of the LSU Center for Energy Studies, also noted that many industrial plants are trying to connect to the grid, which could reduce emissions if the energy being transmitted there is cleaner. 

“It’s not just about reducing carbon emissions,” said Justin Carr, a carbon capture asset manager for ExxonMobil. “It’s about consuming less energy and natural gas to save cost, too. There’s always a push to make the products with less input.” 

A mixed result

Carr argued that Louisiana has the opportunity to decrease emissions “without sacrificing its ability to be a manufacturing powerhouse” through carbon capture — but that technology is highly controversial and it is unclear how intensively the state will pursue it in the future.

Carbon capture involves piping C02 emissions deep underground for permanent storage, but it has faced heavy opposition in rural areas.

Another concern is that an influx of new industry could outpace improvements. 

“On one hand, you’ll have the emissions intensity of products decline, but on the other hand, you have these billions of dollars of investment in facilities that are going to come online,” Upton said. “Even if they’re producing a very low carbon product…that can actually increase the total amount of emissions.” 

Kimberly Terrell, a research scientist at the Environmental Integrity Project, said that even a single large facility can change the overall picture for the state’s emissions. She pointed to year-to-year changes in state emissions data, noting that 2023 emissions figures were similar to nearly a decade prior. 

Decreasing emissions from 2023 to 2024 largely came from reductions in natural gas pipeline transport, she said, even as other sectors increased their emissions. 

“If we remove that one source of natural gas transport, that takes away most of the decrease,” Terrell said. “Individual sectors in Louisiana have been remaining steady or increasing slightly.” 

Over the last two decades, carbon emissions dropped nine percent in Louisiana, according to the Rhodium Group, mirroring a larger national trend to a less dramatic degree. Across the country as a whole, emissions declined by 18% in the same period as the country phased out coal power in favor of mostly natural gas and some renewable energy. 

But there are warnings that the Trump administration’s opposition to renewable energy and embrace of coal could reverse many gains.

What about on the national level? 

Competing forces are also playing out on the national level, the Rhodium Group’s estimates show.

Last year, solar power was the fastest growing source of electricity. But higher demand in the power sector, largely fueled by AI data centers, and the resurgence of coal due to high natural gas prices — in part spurred by liquefied natural gas exports — ultimately trumped the surge in solar, the researchers found. 

“When power demand is growing substantially, both things can be true: You can be bringing a record amount of renewables online, but at the same time you’re not really reducing emissions,” said Michael Gaffney, a lead author of the report. 

Gaffney noted that Louisiana has seen some emissions reductions in the power sector, as natural gas has reduced the grid share of coal. Conversely, emissions from LNG exports have increased as more capacity for the facilities come online. Louisiana is the global epicenter of the carbon-intensive industry and President Donald Trump has pushed to expand the sector further. 

The three existing LNG export terminals in Louisiana were all among the top 10 carbon emitting facilities in the state as of 2023, according to data from Upton. There are more than a dozen more terminals approved or proposed for Louisiana. The other top emitters were chemical plants and refineries.

Terrell noted that Rhodium’s low, medium and high emissions predictions for Louisiana all project a “massive increase in emissions from LNG,” even as the state’s holistic emissions figures are more varied. 

The Rhodium Group found that some of the national emission changes resulted from Trump repealing climate regulations and curbing clean energy tax credits passed under the Biden administration. More effects of policy changes may be felt in the coming years, Gaffney said. 

Upton and Dismukes similarly pointed to the impact of the shuttered tax credits, but they cautioned against giving too much weight to some domestic political changes. 

“I know broadly where the policy is going and it doesn’t matter who it is,” Dismukes said. “It’s going to be more efficient and having lower emissions and delivering product and commodity at the lowest cost, both environmentally and economically.”