Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH bounces off key trendline as retailers distribute, network ac

January 19, 2026

  • Whales accumulated 190K ETH while retailers distributed more than 510K ETH last week.
  • Weekly active addresses reached a record 706,000, while the daily transaction count surged to a new high.
  • ETH could test the 200-day EMA if it sustains a bounce off a key ascending trendline.

Ethereum (ETH) saw mixed sentiments in its on-chain activity over the past week. While whales accumulated amid a surge in network activity, retailers distributed as escalating geopolitical tensions over Greenland eventually pulled down prices.

Whales in the 10K-100K ETH bracket topped their collective holdings by a modest 190K ETH last week. The cohort remained largely silent for over a week, until last Wednesday, when they resumed accumulation. 

However, buying faded again following geopolitical tensions between the US and key European countries.

ETH Balance by Holder Value. Source: CryptoQuant

On the other hand, retailers in the 1K-10K and 100-1K ETH range continued distribution, reducing their collective balance by more than 510K ETH over the past week.

The mixed sentiment among holders comes amid a steady increase in Ethereum’s network activity. Over the weekend, weekly active addresses on the network spiked from levels previously reported to a new all-time high above 706,000, surpassing its May 2021 high. Similarly, daily transactions surged to a new all-time high.

ETH Active Addresses. Source: CryptoQuant

Despite the surge, fees have continued to decline to new lows, a stark contrast with earlier years, when network activity growth often translated into high transaction costs. The change stems from a series of network upgrades over the years, with the most recent, Fusaka, increasing the gas limit and boosting Layer 2 throughput on mainnet.

Ethereum has dropped by about 3.5%, sparking $120.6 million in long liquidations over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.

The top altcoin bounced off an ascending trendline extending from December 18, near the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A decline below the trendline could see ETH find support around $3,050. On the upside, if ETH sustains a bounce off the trendline, it could tackle the 200-day EMA.

ETH/USDT daily chart

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are declining and testing their neutral levels. A firm move below will accelerate the bearish momentum.

 

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