Released amid stalled global cooperation and the United States’ withdrawal from major climate commitments, the MIT report projects continued greenhouse gas emissions growth and dangerous levels of warming by the end of the century.

The outlook is based on MIT’s Integrated Global Systems Model, which links population growth, economic activity, energy use, and international policy decisions to changes in the global climate. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has described it as “a comprehensive tool built to analyze interactions among humans and the climate system.”

“The current trends are very concerning,” said Sergey Paltsev, co-author of thereport and deputy director of MIT’s Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy. “We are nowhere near the stated goals of the Paris Agreement.”

Under current trends, the model projects a rapid expansion of renewable energy, led by wind and solar, with renewables supplying more than 70 percent of global electricity by 2050 — up from roughly 40 percent today. It also finds that, despite US efforts to revive the coal industry, global coal consumption is expected to continue declining.

Those gains from renewable energy are being largely offset by ongoing economic and population growth. Global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise until around 2030, driven primarily by growth in developing countries, while emissions in developed nations, as well as in China and India, remain largely stagnant.

Between 2030 and 2050, emissions are projected to decline slowly, only to rise again later in the century, partly due to agricultural emissions linked to population growth.

With no significant emissions reductions on the horizon, the model projects global temperatures are likely to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next few years, reach roughly 1.8 degrees by 2050, and approach 3 degrees by 2100. These projections represent the model’s “middle of the road path,” or most likely outcome. Across hundreds of simulations, some outcomes show far greater warming, while others fall below that central estimate.

Keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees has long been a central goal of the international climate framework. Exceeding the threshold risks triggering critical tipping points and causing irreversible damage to the planet.

Some parts of the globe are warming more rapidly. New England is among the fastest warming places on Earth.

“The findings [of the MIT report] align with other models and with my own modeling from about a decade ago,” said Ross Salawitch, an atmospheric researcher and climate modeler at the University of Maryland. According to Salawitch, political challenges and energy demand exceeding early projections explains why emissions reductions are not yet clearly reflected in current long-term projections.

More recent independent analyses point to similar outcomes. Rhodium Group estimates “middle-of-the-road” warming at about 2.7 degrees by century’s end, while Climate Action Tracker projects 2.5 degrees to 2.9 degrees, depending on future policy.

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service report released last week ranked 2025 as the third-warmest year on record, just a hair cooler than 2023 and within striking distance of 2024, the hottest year on record. Together, the past three years averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, the first time any three-year stretch has crossed that threshold.

“Any increase in temperature is an indication that the global system is taking on more energy,” said Adam Schlosser, co-author of the “Global Change Outlook” and deputy director at MIT’s Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy. “That energy has to go somewhere and it shows up as more intense and/or frequent extreme events.”

In addition to fueling deadly heat waves that already kill over half a million people each year, rising global temperatures are projected to intensify extreme weather while making precipitation more erratic, increasing the risk of drought, and disrupting agricultural production worldwide. The outlook warns these shifts would also accelerate biodiversity loss.

Despite the grim warning there is still reason for hope. The report also outlines “accelerated actions” — projections of emissions and climate outcomes if strong economic and policy commitments are implemented.

“Two years ago, governments promised to triple renewable energy, double efficiency and act on methane,” Bill Hare, CEO and senior scientist at Climate Analytics, said in a statement. “Our results show if they achieved this by 2035 it would be a game changer, quickly slowing the rate of warming in the next decade and lowering global warming this century from 2.6 degrees to about 1.7 degrees.”

Achieving rapid electrification and decarbonization will demand substantial public and private investment, coordinated global commitments, and a robust regulatory framework. “There’s no one magic bullet,” Paltsev said.

Even if these actions are realized, warming is still expected to exceed 1.5 degrees by 2050, under almost every projection in the MIT model.

“Its not a reason to give up hope or stop the necessary action,” Paltsev said. “Limiting every degree possible matters, even every tenth of a degree.”

This story is published in partnership with Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment.