Schedule III drugs, however, are still considered controlled substances, which means restrictions will remain on cannabis’ manufacture, sales and possession. And the patchwork of regulated markets across 40 states that allow medical sales and 25 that permit recreational sales will still be in conflict with federal law. The timeline for rescheduling cannabis remains murky as Attorney General Pam Bondi has not made a public comment on the process.

Despite that promise for the industry, 2025 also delivered a major buzzkill for marijuana’s cannabis cousin, hemp. In early November, Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell added an amendment to the Agriculture Appropriations section of the minibus spending bill to re-open the federal government, ending the longest shutdown in history, to effectively ban the $28 billion intoxicating hemp industry. The junior senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul, launched an unsuccessful vote to block the ban, which will go into effect this November unless new legislation is introduced. Earlier this week, Rep. Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Rep. Marc Veasey of Texas introduced a bill that would regulated hemp products.

In addition to the giant uncertainty of hemp’s future, there are some serious obstacles for the cannabis industry to get over. For instance, there are well-funded campaigns in three states, Arizona, Massachusetts and Maine, to repeal recreational cannabis sales. There is also resistance against the rescheduling effort as one group opposed to it has hired Bill Barr, Trump’s former attorney general, to file a suit if and when Attorney General Pam Bondi files a final rule to reschedule the drug.

“The takeaway is that the marijuana reform movement is at a crossroads and the movement is facing some serious headwinds,” says Paul Armentano, the deputy director of nonprofit cannabis legalization advocacy group NORML. “How the movement responds to those distinct situations is really going to define whether we continue to move the ball forward in 2026 and beyond, or whether we begin to lose momentum and slip backward.”

Coupled with the fact that there has not been a state to legalize adult-use sales since 2023, when Ohio voters chose to legalize marijuana, Armentano says he does not have “a lot of optimism at this point” when it comes to more states legalizing. “Looking forward, I’m not convinced the prospects are strong for this year,” he adds.

That said, there could be more state-level progress in the year ahead. Here’s where the cannabis map could expand in 2026.

Florida

Legalizing recreational marijuana sales could make its way back to the Sunshine State’s ballot in November, but it will be another uphill battle. In 2024, despite President Trump giving his support, the ballot measure failed to get the necessary 60% of the vote and did not pass. A new poll found that support for legalizing recreational sales decreased to 51%, a four-year low.

Hawaii

Hawaii was the first state to legalize medical marijuana through the state legislature in 2000 but has not been able to legalize a recreational market. The state’s lawmakers tried to pass adult-use in 2024, but the bill passed by the Senate died in committee. There is now a push to get the issue approved as a ballot measure.

“That certainly tells me that proponents are not of the opinion that they have the votes in the legislature to get this done, and they’re trying to find an end run around the legislature,” says Armentano.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State legalized medical marijuana in 2016 and Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, the state’s former attorney general, is in favor of legalizing recreational cannabis. Every state bordering Pennsylvania has legalized adult-use cannabis, except for West Virginia which has a strict and limited medical program. But so far, efforts have failed and there is not enough support bipartisan support to get it done.

“Until there is a real bipartisan effort on the part of Democrats and Republicans, any effort there is going to stall,” says Armentano. “That’s not to say that in the future, the two parties might not work together on a consensus bill, but that hasn’t happened yet, and I’ve seen no indication of any sort of breakthrough on the horizon.”

Virginia

Virginia legalized recreational marijuana for those 21 and over in 2021, but the state still does not have a legal market set up thanks to former Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s multiple vetoes. But newly-elected Governor Abigail Spanberger said she would sign a bill allowing for recreational sales so long as it included strong labeling provisions and the tax revenue went towards funding education.

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