Costco Wholesale (COST 3.17%) is one of the world’s largest and most successful retailers. Here’s a fun fact: Costco is so renowned among shoppers that the company doesn’t spend any money on advertising!

Its bulk-item bargains and legendary $1.50 hot dogs continue to attract loyal customers, enabling the company to grow profitably over the years. But in 2024, Costco raised its premium club membership fee to $130 annually from $120. It was the first price hike in seven years.

Since then, Costco and investors have learned an important lesson that could impact Costco stock in the coming years.

First, it’s crucial to understand the role that club membership fees play in Costco’s financials

Retail is ruthlessly competitive, and selling items at low prices has been paramount to Costco’s success. Through the first 24 weeks of Costco’s fiscal year 2026, the company has generated $134.2 billion in net sales.

Subtract merchandise costs, and all those sales earned just $15 billion in operating income, an 11.1% margin. Once you subtract $12.6 billion in general, selling, and administrative expenses, Costco is only left with $2.4 billion. That’s how thin Costco’s profit margins are.

However, over the same time period, Costco generated $2.68 billion in membership fees. Those fees are virtually all profit, which bumps the company’s total operating income to just over $5 billion through the first 24 months of the fiscal year.

In other words, Costco probably couldn’t operate the way it does if anyone could shop in its stores for free. The membership fees stir the drink and make Costco profitable.

Costco Wholesale

Today’s Change

(-3.17%) $-32.67

Current Price

$999.36

Strong renewals could mean more increases down the road

The way membership fees drive Costco’s bottom line means the entire company can grow earnings faster by growing membership fees than by selling more merchandise.

Management reported during its fiscal year 2026 second-quarter earnings call that U.S. and Canada members renewed their memberships at 92.1%, down just 10 basis points (0.1%) lower than the prior year. At the same time, management credited the 2024 price increase for one-third of Costco’s membership fee growth in the quarter.

That’s 33% growth at just a 0.1% decline in renewals. Now, management probably wouldn’t want to kill the golden goose by raising fees too quickly or too often. Still, the data shows that Costco’s brand power and customer loyalty likely would enable management to raise fees sooner than in another seven years from now.

In that scenario, there could be upside to Costco’s earnings growth, which analysts currently estimate will average 10% annually over the next three to five years.