This is shaping up to be perhaps the greatest year for initial public offerings (IPOs) in history. Artificial intelligence (AI) large language model developers OpenAI and Anthropic are both contemplating going public later this year.

However, space infrastructure and AI titan SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, who also runs trillion-dollar electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA 0.69%), aims to beat them to the punch.

SpaceX might be the most consequential IPO of 2026

On April 1, reports surfaced that SpaceX had filed confidentially for an IPO. The company behind space broadband service Starlink, large language model Grok, xAI, social media platform X, and dozens of reusable spacecraft, is seeking a valuation of $1.75 trillion and a $75 billion capital raise. If these estimates prove accurate, SpaceX would become the largest-ever IPO by a long shot and slide in ahead of Tesla as the eighth-largest publicly traded company in the U.S.

There’s a lot for investors to be excited about. For instance, Reuters reported earlier this year that SpaceX brought in up to $16 billion in revenue last year and generated an $8 billion profit. Though it took Tesla many years to turn the corner to recurring profitability, SpaceX appears to have crossed this proverbial line in the sand.

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Prospective SpaceX IPO investors are also excited about the opportunity to ride Elon Musk’s coattails to another huge gain. Since taking Tesla public in June 2010, Musk has overseen a nearly 23,000% return in his company’s shares, through the closing bell on April 14.

Lastly, the addressable markets for space infrastructure and artificial intelligence are among the largest on Wall Street. McKinsey & Company believes the global space economy is a $1.8 trillion opportunity by 2035, while PwC analysts expect AI to create more than $15 trillion in global economic value by 2030.

But what if I told you that Wall Street is missing the biggest SpaceX number of them all?

Wall Street is overlooking an important historical figure

Although history can’t predict the future with 100% accuracy, it tends to be correct more often than not.

Since 1999, the U.S. has been privy to a handful of mega-IPOs, including Alibaba Group, Visa, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), General Motors, and United Parcel Service. We also witnessed the largest global IPO in history, Saudi Aramco, in December 2019.

But with the exception of Visa, these high-profile companies fell flat on their faces when they ran out of the gate. What follows are their respective returns six months after their IPOs:

• Alibaba Group: Down 9%
• Visa: Up 23%
• Facebook (now Meta): Down 38%
• General Motors: Down 8%
• UPS: Down 11%
• Saudi Aramco: Down 15%

On average, the largest IPOs have lost 10% of their value (when rounded) six months after going public. If history rhymes and SpaceX loses 10% of its value half a year after its debut, it could erase up to $175 billion in market value.

History makes clear that investors consistently overestimate the upside of newly public companies. This is something prospective SpaceX investors need to keep in mind.