Bitcoin’s (BTC) 200-week moving average has climbed past $61,000. Blockstream CEO Adam Back flagged the threshold on May 30, weeks after noting the same indicator crossed $60,000 in early May.

The indicator has risen roughly $1,000 in under a month, a pace that reflects steady absorption of supply by long-term holders at current price levels.

A Rising Long-Term Floor

The 200-week moving average smooths nearly four years of weekly Bitcoin closes. It has served as a support floor at each of Bitcoin’s prior cycle bottoms, and crossings of major thresholds draw sustained attention from long-term holders watching the structural trend.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading well above this level. It maintained a significant gap between the spot price and the 200-week moving average first, highlighted by Back in early May.

The 2022 bear market remains the only period where BTC closed a weekly candle below the line before quickly reclaiming it. The long-term bullish structure has trended higher in every cycle since.

Munger’s Argument, Applied to Bitcoin

In a follow-up post, Back cited a remark attributed to the late Charlie Munger, a popular American billionaire investor.

Apparently Charlie Munger would agree generally “If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks at the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time. The problem is, few human beings have that kind of discipline”

Back attributed the comment to Munger, then added a caveat. He noted that Munger and Buffett “never got bitcoin,” drawing a parallel to their early dismissal of the internet. He attributed both misses to their preference for physical businesses.

The implicit argument is that Bitcoin holders willing to apply Munger-style patience at moving-average lows could see outsized returns over full cycles.

The indicator rises gradually across cycles, meaning entries near it have historically represented a structural discount to Bitcoin’s long-term trend.

Back has made that case in prior posts, consistently advocating for disciplined accumulation strategies rather than active trading.

Whether the 200-week moving average sustains its current climb depends on whether institutional and retail demand continue to outpace selling. On-chain data has supported the case that structural buying remains intact for now.