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Persimmon’s analyst price target has moved from £1,610 to £1,390, a £220 reduction that also coincides with a trimmed fair value estimate from £15.32 to £13.97, or roughly 8.8% lower in the model. This shift lines up with more balanced commentary, where some analysts still see potential upside while others are placing greater weight on valuation discipline and execution risks. As you read on, you will see how to track this evolving narrative and what it may mean for your own view on the stock.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Persimmon.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Persimmon, which signals confidence that the stock can justify a valuation above a neutral stance even after its fair value estimate in the model has been trimmed.

• The firm previously set a price target of £1,610 and, despite revising this to £1,390, still sees enough support in its assumptions to stay positive on the shares rather than shifting to a more cautious rating.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley has reduced its Persimmon price target by £220 and cut its fair value estimate in the model by roughly 8.8%, which highlights greater attention to valuation risk at current levels.

• The lower target and fair value estimate also reflect a wider analyst discussion around execution risks, with some investors likely to focus more on how delivery against current expectations could affect the stock’s risk and reward trade off.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

We’ve flagged 2 risks for Persimmon. See which could impact your investment.

What’s in the News

• Persimmon issued production guidance for 2026, targeting 12,000 to 12,500 home completions, with the plan based on an assumption of stable market conditions.

• The company reported a private forward sales position of £1.25b for 2026, compared with £1.15b for 2024.

• Management highlighted a 9% year on year change in the private forward sales position to £1.25b, and linked this pipeline directly to the 2026 completions target.

How This Changes the Fair Value For Persimmon

• Fair value in the model is trimmed from £15.32 to £13.97, a reduction of roughly 8.8%.

• Revenue growth assumption is eased from 4.90% to 4.79% for future £ revenue expansion.

• Net profit margin assumption is reduced from 9.51% to 9.16% for future profitability.

• Future P/E multiple is brought down from 15.44x to 14.62x on projected earnings.

• The discount rate is adjusted slightly lower from 8.82% to 8.70% in the model.