A crypto whale bet $368 million against bitcoin, already raking in $2 million in profits despite enormous risk ahead of crucial Fed decisions this week.

A $368M bet against Bitcoin: risky strategy or stroke of genius?

On March 15, 2025, a large crypto investor, commonly referred to as a “whale” in the industry jargon, opened an exceptionally large short position on bitcoin, contributing to a significant drop in its value. This transaction, initiated at $84,043 with a 40x leverage, represents over 4,442 BTC for a total value exceeding $368 million.

To be precise, the 40x leverage means the investor has actually only put in about $9.2 million of their own capital, borrowing the rest to amplify their position. This technique multiplies potential gains but also exposes them to catastrophic losses in the event of a market reversal.

The critical threshold for this position is at $85,592 – if the price of bitcoin exceeds this limit, the position would be automatically liquidated, resulting in significant losses.

According to Hypurrscan, this operation has already generated more than $2 million in unrealized profits. However, maintaining this position has cost its holder over $200,000 in funding fees.

These types of strategies are not uncommon in the crypto ecosystem. In early March, a trader also made a spectacular gain of $68 million from a short position on Ether with an even higher leverage of 50x.

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A decisive week for the crypto market

This bet comes at a strategic moment, just before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 19. This week promises to be crucial with several major macroeconomic releases that could strongly influence investor appetite for risky assets like bitcoin.

According to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, bitcoin will need to maintain a weekly close above $81,000 to avoid bearish volatility ahead of the FOMC meeting. He stated to Cointelegraph:

The key level to watch for the weekly close is the range of $81,000. Holding above this level would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could trigger further selling pressure in the short term.

The markets currently anticipate a 98% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, according to the latest estimates from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Nonetheless, comments from the Fed chair on economic outlook and the future trajectory of rates could trigger significant price movements in the crypto market.

The current volatility of bitcoin is also amplified by the growing macroeconomic uncertainty regarding international tariffs, an additional factor that investors are closely monitoring.