Some of Alex Amorese’s clients planning large real estate projects are uncertain about the future.

Amorese, who sells commercial real estate for CBRE and works closely with local developers, often runs into the power challenge–whether it’s in the town of Henrietta or the city of Canandaigua. Either there’s not enough electricity to power a new project, or developers are told it’s likely to dry up.

“I have clients that are scrambling to put building permits in place so the power remains allotted to them,” says Amorese, a Rochester Beacon board member. “I’ve seen developers that I know (who) are basically at a standstill for projects because the power is no longer being allotted.”

His experience illustrates a challenge that has affected climate advocates and economic development officials alike. New York’s inability to outline targets for climate reform has left many in limbo. The sweeping, mandated targets for renewable energy generation and greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030 have placed unrealistic pressure on the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation, experts say. Achieving them will result in high costs to consumers and hurt economic development.  

“A move to an electric economy misses the mark if we do not have the electric capacity on our electric transmission and distribution systems that has been prepared for growth, as capacity is a strong selling point for those seeking to locate and/or expand in New York,” says Dennis Elsenbeck, attorney and head of energy and sustainability at Phillips Lytle LLP. “Manufacturers interested in New York seek a reliable energy supply at a fair market price.”

In two separate reports, the energy-planning nonprofit New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) last month detailed the challenges of maintaining a reliable high-voltage electric system as electricity transmission faces limitations with growing consumer demand. While the reports focus on the downstate area, they highlight a concerning future as the state works to comply with climate reform targets outlined in its Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act.

After a few years of pushing a climate agenda, Gov. Kathy Hochul made no mention of it in her State of the State address this year. Now, a state Supreme Court judge has ordered the NYSDEC to issue draft regulations previously proposed by Hochul and mandated by the state’s Climate Act.

Climate reform

The CLCPA builds on existing state legislation, establishing mandated targets in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing renewable energy generation. It created a Climate Action Council to develop a scoping plan that would allow the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation to develop and implement a framework that would:

■ reduce greenhouse gas levels by 40 percent from 1990 levels, and

■ ensure that 70 percent of statewide electricity be generated from renewable sources.

New York’s Climate Act went into effect in 2020, first giving the Climate Action Council two years to develop a draft scoping plan that would introduce recommendations for the state. When Hochul took office in August 2021, her legislative agenda in the following years first prioritized fulfilling the Climate Act’s targets through sweeping investments in renewable energy infrastructure and the electrification of buildings.

In her 2022 State of the State address, Hochul announced plans to build 2 million climate-friendly homes by 2030, along with a $500 million investment in offshore wind infrastructure to power downstate areas. After the Climate Action Council advanced its scoping plan later that year, Hochul then directed the DEC to develop a cap-and-invest program focused on affordability, employment opportunities and investment in disadvantaged communities.

A cap-and-invest program would set an annual limit on greenhouse gas emissions statewide, requiring producers to purchase allowances if they expect to exceed the state’s cap. By lowering the emissions cap each year, producers would either be required to purchase increased allowances or divest from greenhouse gas emissions.

“In cap-and-invest, large polluters have to buy the right to pollute. They do this through participating in an annual auction in which an allowance is auctioned off,” says Graham Hughes, policy and advocacy director at Climate Solutions Accelerator, a regional climate action group. “The money that is raised through this auction is then reinvested into communities across the state to do everything from building thermal energy networks, to retrofitting homes … even just making people’s energy bills more affordable.”

A study on cap-and-invest price ceiling scenarios, by nonprofit research institution Resources for the Future, shows that a low-price scenario—in which allowances are set at $14 in 2025 and raised to $30 in 2030—would generate $6.66 billion in revenue toward the Consumer Climate Action Account. This account was established by the state to receive 30 percent of all cap-and-invest revenues to mitigate consumer cost increases that could arise from the Climate Act.  Low- and middle-income households, according to RFF, would reap net savings through a statewide cap-and-invest program.

After the DEC and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority issued a pre-proposal outline for a cap-and-invest program in December 2023, the state’s next steps were to draft and circulate enforceable regulations that would align the state with its climate reform targets. As mandated by the Climate Act, draft regulations were to be issued and enforced by Jan. 1, 2024. Those regulations, however, have not been released.

“There’s the large polluters in the fossil fuel lobby (who) stand to pay more money under a cap-and-invest program, so I’m sure their lobbying is at least a factor in this,” says Hughes. “We really don’t know why Hochul and other leadership at the state level have not really shared publicly why these delays are happening.”

Unclear objectives

In her 2025 State of the State address, Hochul said the DEC and NYSERDA would “take steps forward on developing the cap-and-invest program, proposing new reporting regulations to gather information on emissions sources, while creating more space and time for public transparency and a robust investment planning process.”

New York Renews, a statewide coalition of climate advocacy organizations, started the Fund Climate Campaign in response to continued delays in cap-and-invest, calling on Hochul and the state to issue mandated draft regulations. Advocates claim these rules would not only further align New York with the Climate Act’s mandated targets, but directly serve disadvantaged communities through overall decreases in energy costs. The DEC has identified areas throughout Monroe County as communities that bear increased burdens of climate change. Local advocates point out Rochester is facing the third-highest energy burden in the nation.

“We see this really as a betrayal to our community, because this is (billions of dollars) a year that polluters, not taxpayers, would pay for things like upgrading all of our homes and training workers to do that work,” says Michi Wenderlich, campaign and policy coordinator at Metro Justice. “It’s core things that help all of our needs in the intertwined housing, affordability, utility bill crises, (and) health crises that we’re seeing, and of course, the climate crisis. She’s just walking away from this (cap-and-invest) money.”

In March, a select group of advocacy organizations within the New York Renews coalition moved to sue the DEC over repeated delays in the draft cap-and-invest regulations, alleging a violation of the statutory requirements of the state’s Climate Act. The DEC, represented by state Attorney General Letitia James, stated that the agency has released greenhouse gas-reducing regulations while acknowledging that a cap-and-invest framework is still being developed.

According to the DEC, concerns about consumer affordability and statewide grid capacity are the primary constraints to achieving the targets set by the state’s Climate Act. In a supplemental letter to Ulster County Judge Julian Schreibman, the agency stated that a mandated 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 would be infeasible without unanticipated costs to ratepayers.

The only target the state is expected to meet under its Climate Act is to develop 10 gigawatts of distributed solar infrastructure by 2030. Its Climate Act Dashboard states it has achieved 23 percent of its emissions reduction goal, and 35 percent of its renewable energy production target. 

The most aggressive policymaking the state could enact to meet its mandated targets, the DEC maintains, will raise economy-wide costs for the state’s energy system in 2040 by at least 35 percent, or $42 billion for that year alone.

An old problem

Worries about the state’s ability to meet its climate targets existed long before the court’s October decision. In an August 2023 review of renewable energy, State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli revealed the state’s existing renewable generation could not adequately meet Climate Act targets without significant development.

“To meet the CLCPA 2030 renewable electricity goal, the State will have to more than triple the installed 2022 renewable capacity of roughly 6.5 gigawatts by adding an additional 20 gigawatts over an eight-year period,” DiNapoli wrote. “As a point of reference, the State added 12.9 gigawatts of total electric generation, including both fossil fuel and renewable sources, in the last 20 years. Clearly, achieving the renewable electricity goal will require an increase in recent performance.”

For Elsenbeck, an original member of the Climate Action Council, the concern lies not just in availability but the length of time needed for the New York Independent System Operator and local electric utilities to study capacity that is more reactive than proactive.

“Electric capacity was a challenge when the CLCPA was written in law, and it was not covered adequately during the Climate Action Council deliberations that were too consumed with transitioning away from natural gas,” Elsenbeck says. “As we have seen recently, the electric system continues to be challenged today, and will (continue) in the foreseeable future if we do not embrace the needs of local economic development, work with interested developers and seek a more proactive electric plan that prioritizes economic growth.”

A July 2024 state comptroller audit found inadequate planning, monitoring and assessment of risks and challenges in the state Public Service Commission’s efforts to help the state meet Climate Act targets. At times, the PSC used outdated data and wrong calculations to determine if the state could reach 70 percent renewably sourced electricity by 2030. The PSC, Napoli says, did not develop a backup plan should those targets not be met, even though only 30 percent of large-scale renewable projects were completed from 2005 to 2023.

Those concerns have culminated in the NYISO’s findings of short-term reliability violations downstate because of the deactivation of large-scale fossil-fuel peaker generators, indicating the state does not have the capacity to sustain the approach toward the Climate Act targets. For Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, a nonpartisan fiscal policy coalition, an “all-of-the-above” approach must be reflected in the law.

“It’s simply not realistic to think that we can move forward with an all-of-the-above approach, which includes natural gas, when the law effectively outlaws it,” Wilcox says. “The fact that we can’t add more fossil fuel generation has put us at a bit of a bind because we are losing generation faster than we’re able to replace it.”

Continued delays in implementing the law, Wilcox adds, do not provide a level of certainty needed for continued statewide economic investment.

“If you’re going to delay implementation, even though it says otherwise in the law that was written in 2019, what is an investor or a company who is looking to make capital investments in New York State left to do?” Wilcox says. “Are they to assume that because the governor is saying all the above and kicking the can down the road in terms of releasing regulations, do they assume that’s the state of play?”

In ruling in favor of the plaintiffs, Judge Schreibman ordered the DEC to issue draft regulations that comply with the Climate Act no later than Feb. 6, 2026, giving state legislators one month after they return to Albany to evaluate potential amendments to the Climate Act. 

Elsenbeck and Wilcox both describe an ideal statewide climate agenda as one that balances the concerns of climate advocates with the infrastructure realistic and certain enough to generate long-term economic investment.

The fate of the Climate Act lies largely in lawmakers’ hands as they evaluate what New York can do to advance climate reform, through the existing CLCPA or another route.

For Assemblymember Josh Jensen, achieving the 2030 Climate Act targets would disproportionately place burdens on upstate and Western New York to benefit downstate generation without valuing local and upstate communities.

“I do not disagree with the idea that government should work to prioritize creating a more sustainable energy and environmental future; however, I do not believe strict mandates are the means to achieve that future,” says Jensen, whose district includes parts of Monroe County. “These accelerated timelines will make our state less affordable for families and businesses and jeopardize the availability of energy on the grid.”

Democrats in the Assembly have reaffirmed their support for climate reform, whether through new legislation or potential amendments to the CLCPA. 

Assemblymember Harry Bronson joined Hughes and the Climate Solutions Accelerator in calling on Hochul to sign legislation that would repeal previous requirements for utilities to connect natural gas lines to new construction within 100 feet of interested customers. Assemblymember Demond Meeks says the recent court decision underscores the importance of moving forward thoughtfully on the state’s climate commitments. (Assemblymembers Jennifer Lunsford, Sarah Clark and Brian Mankletow did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did Sens. Pamela Helming, Robert Ortt and Samra Brouk.)

“As we return to Albany for the legislative session, I remain focused on ensuring New York takes the necessary steps to meet its goals while keeping the needs of our communities at the center,” Meeks says. “Even as state resources become more challenging to manage, we will continue working toward a balanced approach that supports families, strengthens our economy and prepares our state for the future.”

For state Sen. Jeremy Cooney, the Climate Act targets remain at the forefront of his priorities.

“Everything should be on the table to examine how we obtain the funding necessary to implement the provisions of (the) CLCPA, and that’s exactly what we’ll be looking at as we prepare for session next year,” Cooney says.

Says Elsenbeck: “If we do not balance economic and environmental sustainability, both may fail, and when the cost to achieve policy initiatives negatively impact manufacturing production, there is a high probability of repealing a law that has good intent but is not economically sustainable.”

CBRE’s Alex Amorese is a Rochester Beacon board member.

Narm Nathan is a Rochester Beacon contributing writer and a member of the Oasis Project’s inaugural cohort. Malak Kassem, a member of the Oasis Project’s second cohort assisted with this article.

The Beacon welcomes comments and letters from readers who adhere to our comment policy including use of their full, real name. See “Leave a Reply” below to discuss on this post. Comments of a general nature may be submitted to the Letters page by emailing [email protected].