It’s tough to ignore MARA Holdings (MARA) right now, especially if you’ve been watching its stock try to claw back momentum after a rocky stretch. While there’s no headline-grabbing event lighting a fire under the shares this week, the gradual uptick in price over the past month might have investors wondering if this is simply noise or if it hints at something more durable.

Looking at the bigger picture, MARA’s returns show a stock that has moved in fits and starts. The year hasn’t been easy; shares are down around 6% year to date and are trailing their level from a year ago by a similar margin. However, the past three months tell a slightly different story, with the stock up 7%, suggesting potential for shifting sentiment. That said, longer-term investors have seen significant gains with a remarkable 500% return over three years and more than 7,200% over five years. This underscores how unpredictable the ride can be for anyone holding through the cycles.

With this uneven track record, the real question is whether today’s price represents a bargain or if the market is already factoring in every ounce of future growth. Could now be the buying opportunity you’ve been waiting for, or is caution still the wiser play?

According to the most widely followed narrative, MARA Holdings is currently considered substantially undervalued compared to its fair value estimate, with a sizable discount built into today’s share price.

MARA’s strategic expansion into AI infrastructure and partnerships with leading AI and grid management companies positions the firm to benefit from the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence and the growing demand for high-performance, energy-efficient compute. This expansion has the potential to unlock new, recurring revenue streams outside traditional bitcoin mining.

What is fueling this bullish projection? The foundation of this valuation relies on bold assumptions about revenue acceleration, profit shifts, and a future earnings multiple that is rarely seen outside disruptive technology companies. Interested in which specific forecasts are attracting attention, and just how aggressive analysts have been with their price calculations? Prepare for a detailed look at the key calculations and forward-looking estimates that are central to this notable fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $23.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, MARA’s heavy reliance on bitcoin mining and high capital demands could quickly undermine the bullish outlook if market conditions shift or costs increase.