You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
Cannabis stocks, which are down 20.3% year-to-date as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index at 5.42, have rallied sharply off the lows set in early April. Quarter-to-date, the index is up 7.8%. This advance is a better return than the S&P 500, which has rallied in price by 5.0%.
The index, which is rebalanced quarterly, has 23 members. These stocks met the criteria of being above $0.50 and having enough trading volumes when the quarterly rebalancing for 3/31 took place. The overall index has 38.6% exposure to its largest sub-sector, Ancillaries, and over 26% exposure to MSOs and to Canadian LPs. There is also one biotech stock and one Canadian retailer that make up the balance.
Looking at the quarter-to-date returns, there has been tremendous volatility, as 5 stocks are down more than 10%, and 3 stocks are up more than 15%. The down stocks are mainly MSOs, but there is another that is diversified, while all three of the gainers are diversified companies:
I cover four of these at 420 Investor, where my Focus List has 20 members currently, but I don’t cover Emerald Holding, which owns Marijuana Biz Daily, Turning Point Brands or SNDL. I did recently consider adding SNDL to my Focus List and spoke with the CEO before its Q1 call and decided to wait. The other four big decliners in Q2 are all MSOs. I like Cresco Labs, which has not yet reported its Q1 financials, and Verano, which are both part of my model portfolio at 420 Investor, while I have warned investors about GTI and Curaleaf here and at Seeking Alpha. They are both experiencing less growth in future profitability as measured by the analyst projections for adjusted EBITDA. GTI has a very strong balance sheet relative to peers, while Curaleaf’s is weighed down by extensive debt. Both stocks are very large parts of AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), which has declined by 29.7% in 2025 despite the 2.7% rally in Q2.
Of the 23 stocks in the Global Cannabis Stock Index currently, four have rallied in 2025, with three of those up more than 10%. Turning Point Brands is one of those. Each of the five Q2 losers has dropped more than the Global Cannabis Stock Index in 2025.
For those looking to take advantage of the drop in cannabis stocks this year to apparently very cheap levels, the Q2 decliners might be a place to start looking. As I said above, I like the two weakest ones but not the other decliners. The biggest deciner in the index year-to-date is Tilray Brands, which I started liking too early after not liking it for a very long time, down 66.8% year-to-date and down 9.0% in Q2. I like it more than the five that have declined more. I understand that many traders and investors are negative on the potential reverse-split that shareholders will need to approve in June.
I believe that there are other opportunities among the index members, and I would suggest that investors consider stocks that are outside of the index but that are large players. Village Farms this week has rallied immensely after announcing its move to spin-off its produce business and is now up 29.7% year-to-date. I have held this in my model portfolio for some time despite it not being part of the index that I aim to beat. The stock remains very cheap in my view, though I have reduced my exposure this week on the big move upwards. I own two smaller MSOs that are not in the index in the model portfolio as well.
I have been following the cannabis sector for a dozen years now, and it’s not so clear how things will play out going forward. The big issue remains 280E taxation, but there are many other challenges. At the same time, there is strength in certain states, like New York, and there is some potential additional adult-use legalization. The world is watching closely THC beverages, where there is a unique opportunity potentially as this newsletter discussed three weeks ago.
My model portfolio is currently 90% invested in cannabis stocks. Here is how it looks by sub-sector:
So, cannabis stocks seem very cheap, but the path ahead isn’t clear. Not in the U.S., not in Canada, and not in the rest of the world! Expect them to remain volatility, and consider buying some that have gone down too much.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Exclusives
Michigan Cannabis Sales Fall Again in April
Q1 Cannabis Financial Updates Fail to Impress
The Florida Cannabis Market Weakens Further
Financial Reports
To get real-time updates, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.
Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community
420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At
New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at
Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a
frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan:
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Email
Get Our Sunday Newsletter
In This Article:
cl, Cresco Labs, CRLBF, cura, Curaleaf, curlf, EEX, Emerald Holding, Green Thumb Industries, gtbif, Gti, gtii, Scotts Miracle-Gro, smg, SNDL, TPB, Turning Point Brands, verano, VRNO, vrnof
You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
Cannabis stocks, which are down 20.3% year-to-date as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index at 5.42, have rallied sharply off the lows set in early April. Quarter-to-date, the index is up 7.8%. This advance is a better return than the S&P 500, which has rallied in price by 5.0%.
The index, which is rebalanced quarterly, has 23 members. These stocks met the criteria of being above $0.50 and having enough trading volumes when the quarterly rebalancing for 3/31 took place. The overall index has 38.6% exposure to its largest sub-sector, Ancillaries, and over 26% exposure to MSOs and to Canadian LPs. There is also one biotech stock and one Canadian retailer that make up the balance.
Looking at the quarter-to-date returns, there has been tremendous volatility, as 5 stocks are down more than 10%, and 3 stocks are up more than 15%. The down stocks are mainly MSOs, but there is another that is diversified, while all three of the gainers are diversified companies:
I cover four of these at 420 Investor, where my Focus List has 20 members currently, but I don’t cover Emerald Holding, which owns Marijuana Biz Daily, Turning Point Brands or SNDL. I did recently consider adding SNDL to my Focus List and spoke with the CEO before its Q1 call and decided to wait. The other four big decliners in Q2 are all MSOs. I like Cresco Labs, which has not yet reported its Q1 financials, and Verano, which are both part of my model portfolio at 420 Investor, while I have warned investors about GTI and Curaleaf here and at Seeking Alpha. They are both experiencing less growth in future profitability as measured by the analyst projections for adjusted EBITDA. GTI has a very strong balance sheet relative to peers, while Curaleaf’s is weighed down by extensive debt. Both stocks are very large parts of AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), which has declined by 29.7% in 2025 despite the 2.7% rally in Q2.
Of the 23 stocks in the Global Cannabis Stock Index currently, four have rallied in 2025, with three of those up more than 10%. Turning Point Brands is one of those. Each of the five Q2 losers has dropped more than the Global Cannabis Stock Index in 2025.
For those looking to take advantage of the drop in cannabis stocks this year to apparently very cheap levels, the Q2 decliners might be a place to start looking. As I said above, I like the two weakest ones but not the other decliners. The biggest deciner in the index year-to-date is Tilray Brands, which I started liking too early after not liking it for a very long time, down 66.8% year-to-date and down 9.0% in Q2. I like it more than the five that have declined more. I understand that many traders and investors are negative on the potential reverse-split that shareholders will need to approve in June.
I believe that there are other opportunities among the index members, and I would suggest that investors consider stocks that are outside of the index but that are large players. Village Farms this week has rallied immensely after announcing its move to spin-off its produce business and is now up 29.7% year-to-date. I have held this in my model portfolio for some time despite it not being part of the index that I aim to beat. The stock remains very cheap in my view, though I have reduced my exposure this week on the big move upwards. I own two smaller MSOs that are not in the index in the model portfolio as well.
I have been following the cannabis sector for a dozen years now, and it’s not so clear how things will play out going forward. The big issue remains 280E taxation, but there are many other challenges. At the same time, there is strength in certain states, like New York, and there is some potential additional adult-use legalization. The world is watching closely THC beverages, where there is a unique opportunity potentially as this newsletter discussed three weeks ago.
My model portfolio is currently 90% invested in cannabis stocks. Here is how it looks by sub-sector:
So, cannabis stocks seem very cheap, but the path ahead isn’t clear. Not in the U.S., not in Canada, and not in the rest of the world! Expect them to remain volatility, and consider buying some that have gone down too much.
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Exclusives
Michigan Cannabis Sales Fall Again in April
Q1 Cannabis Financial Updates Fail to Impress
The Florida Cannabis Market Weakens Further
Financial Reports
To get real-time updates, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.
Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.
Get Our Sunday Newsletter
In This Article:
cl, Cresco Labs, CRLBF, cura, Curaleaf, curlf, EEX, Emerald Holding, Green Thumb Industries, gtbif, Gti, gtii, Scotts Miracle-Gro, smg, SNDL, TPB, Turning Point Brands, verano, VRNO, vrnof
Related News:
Q1 Cannabis Financial Updates Fail to Impress
Michigan Cannabis Sales Fall Again in April
The Florida Cannabis Market Weakens Further
Curaleaf Q1 Revenue Falls 9%