A trader just put $22,038 into contracts betting against “$4,530 or above” in a “Ethereum price at Oct 3, 2025 at 4pm EDT?” market.

This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.

Market Context

This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/03 at 03:56 PM EST when the market was giving a 80% chance of their bet paying off.

There have been 127,986 contracts traded in this market in the last day.

Market Rules

Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks’ Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 4 PM EDT is above 4529.99 at 4 PM EDT on Oct 3, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks’ corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.

You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.

Why this matters

The market for forecasting cryptocurrency prices plays a critical role in shaping investor expectations and market sentiment. By aggregating diverse opinions on future asset values, these prediction markets provide valuable insights into perceived risks and potential price trajectories within the highly volatile digital asset space.

Moreover, such markets enhance price discovery mechanisms and enable market participants to hedge their exposure to future movements in cryptocurrency prices. The ability to trade contracts based on specific outcomes offers an additional layer of risk management and informational efficiency, which is paramount in the evolving landscape of digital financial assets.