A westward shift of heatwave hotspots caused by warming-enhanced land–air coupling

March 20, 2025

Abstract

Heatwaves pose serious risks to human health and lives, but how their occurrence patterns may change under global warming remains unclear. Here we reveal a systematic westward shift of heatwave hotspots across the northern mid-latitudes around the late 1990s. Both observational analysis and numerical simulation show that this shift is caused by intensified soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SAC) in eastern Europe, Northeast Asia and western North America under recent background warming. The strengthened SAC shifted the atmospheric high-amplitude Rossby wavenumber-5 pattern westwards to a preferred phase position, which increased the probability of the occurrence of high-pressure ridges over these 3 hotspots by a factor of up to 39. Our results highlight the importance of SAC in shaping heatwave patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation and challenge the conventional view that the land surface only passively responds to atmospheric forcing.

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Fig. 1: Changes in the location of summer (June, July and August) heatwave hotspots in northern mid-latitudes.
Fig. 2: Phase-locking behaviour of high-amplitude Rossby waves and associated circulation and SAT anomalies.
Fig. 3: The influence of SAC.
Fig. 4: Comparisons between simulations with (Ctl) and without (CtlpdLC) land–air coupling.

Data availability

All data used in this study are freely accessible. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis can be downloaded at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/search?text=ERA5%20back%20extension&type=dataset. The BEST data are freely available at http://berkeleyearth.org/data/. The GLEAM 4.1a can be obtained from https://www.gleam.eu/. CMIP6 data are available at https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. All GOGA and GOGA-PSM output used in this study can be obtained at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5800726 (ref. 70). The simulation data of Ctl and CtlpdLC are available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14890985 (ref. 71).

Code availability

Analysis and figure generation were performed using Python3.8.18. The code used to set up model simulations, analyse data and create figures are available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14890985 (ref. 71).

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 42288101 to Z.Z.), National Key Research and Development Program (grant number 2022YFF0801703 to Z.Z.) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 42175053 to Z.Z.).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change/Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice System for Weather and Climate of Ministry of Education, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

    Kaiwen Zhang, Zhiyan Zuo, Wei Mei & Renhe Zhang

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, USA

    Aiguo Dai

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Contributions

K.Z. and Z.Z. wrote the initial manuscript. W.M., A.D. and R.Z. revised and improved the manuscript. K.Z. performed model analysis and generated the final figures. K.Z., Z.Z., A.D., R.Z. and W.M. contributed to the methodological design and interpretation of results.

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Correspondence to
Zhiyan Zuo.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Comparison of phase position distributions of wave 5 with different amplitudes in Ctl (red) and CtlpdLC (blue) experiments.

a–h, The probability densities of the phase positions of wave 5 with amplitudes of (a) ≤−1.5 standard deviation (σ), (b) −1.5 – −1 standard deviation, (c) −1 – −0.5 standard deviation, (d) −0.5 – 0 standard deviation, (e) 0 – 0.5 standard deviation, (f) 0.5 – 1 standard deviation, (g) 1–1.5 standard deviation and (h) ≥ 1.5 standard deviation.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Development of surface soil moisture (SM), surface sensible heat flux (SH), and tropospheric atmospheric thickness (dZ) anomalies prior to continuous high-amplitude wave 5 events in the Ctl experiment.

a–e, The difference of the 3-days averaged surface soil moisture (Units: kg m-2; shading), surface sensible heat flux (Units: W m-2; hatching; only the regions with positive values were hatched) and the tropospheric atmospheric thickness (Units: m; contour; the difference of geopotential height between 200hPa and the bottom of the tropospheric atmosphere) anomalies between (a) 13–15 days and 16–18 days, (b) 10–12 days and 13–15 days, (c) 7–9 days and 10–12 days, (d) 4–6 days and 7–9 days, (e) 1–3 days and 4–6 days before the start day of continuous high-amplitude wave 5 events in the Ctl experiment. Basemaps from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Development of surface air temperature (SAT) and tropospheric atmospheric thickness (dZ) anomalies prior to continuous high-amplitude wave 5 events in the Ctl experiment.

a–e, The difference of the 3-days averaged SAT (Units: K; shading), and the tropospheric atmospheric thickness (Units: m; contour; the difference of geopotential height between 200hPa and the bottom of the tropospheric atmosphere) anomalies between (a) 13–15 days and 16–18 days, (b) 10–12 days and 13–15 days, (c) 7–9 days and 10–12 days, (d) 4–6 days and 7–9 days, (e) 1–3 days and 4–6 days before the start day of continuous high-amplitude wave 5 events in the Ctl experiment. Basemaps from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).

Extended Data Fig. 4 Distribution of northern hemisphere mid-latitude summer heatwave hotspots under different AMV and IPV phases in the near future (2025–2034) for the SSP1-2.6 scenario.

a, Scatter plot of AMV (x-axis) and IPV (y-axis) phases during 2025–2034 from 18 CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6 scenarios. b–e, The distributions of the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of summer heatwave days during 2025–2034 with the zonal mean of each year removed under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with models under (b) AMV+ and IPV+, (c) AMV+ and IPV-, (d) AMV- and IPV+ and (e) AMV- and IPV-. Basemaps in b–e from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com).

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1–12 and Table 1.

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Zhang, K., Zuo, Z., Mei, W. et al. A westward shift of heatwave hotspots caused by warming-enhanced land–air coupling.
Nat. Clim. Chang. (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02302-4

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  • Received: 28 August 2024

  • Accepted: 28 February 2025

  • Published: 20 March 2025

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02302-4

 

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