NAIROBI, Kenya — China’s decision to end value-added tax rebates on solar panel exports and phase out incentives for making battery storage equipment could push up the cost of solar installations in Africa, which relies heavily on imported Chinese technology.

The changes, expected to take effect April 1 for solar panels and beginning next year for batteries, may complicate efforts to expand renewable energy to close vast electricity gaps across Africa, though experts say the impact likely will be manageable.

“We are likely to see solar panel prices increase in Africa because most of the inputs come from China,” said Wangari Muchiri, an energy analyst focused on Africa’s clean energy sector. “Removing the rebate will add to existing costs, especially when you consider shipping, logistics, and other import fees.”

Africa already pays significantly more for solar equipment than other regions because of transport costs, smaller import volumes and tariffs.

China’s policy change reflects broader shifts after fierce competition among Chinese manufacturers pushed solar module prices to as little as $0.07 per watt in 2025, from $0.25 in 2022. That helped drive global adoption of solar energy, but left many companies with heavy losses.

Some Chinese companies built VAT rebates into their export pricing, effectively transferring those subsidies to their overseas buyers. But Beijing has cut back on those payments as it reins in overcapacity and shifts toward more advanced technologies.

Rather than a sharp price shock, the loss of such rebates will likely gradually raise prices, setting a firmer global price floor.

“The changes are significant, but not catastrophic,” said John van Zuylen, CEO of the Africa Solar Industry Association.

“The entire recent solar boom was built on artificially cheap Chinese pricing,” van Zuylen said. “That era is now ending.”

“When a structural rebate is removed, exporters typically either absorb the cost, raise prices, or reduce discounting,” van Zuylen said. “African countries will likely feel this as a gradual upward shift in pricing rather than a single dramatic spike.”

Even with modest price increases, solar is expected to remain competitive across much of the continent since it’s the cheapest source of energy in Africa, Muchiri said.

“Even with higher panel prices, it will still be significantly cheaper than alternatives like diesel,” she said.

“It will increase project costs slightly and might delay the project construction pipeline due to supply chain shortages and contractual changes, stockpiling rush, congestion in shipment for the countries heavily reliant on Chinese imports,” said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council, an industry association.

Battery storage, critical for providing electricity after sunset, may face a bigger challenge as incentives are phased out through 2027. Higher costs may affect smaller users the most, van Zuylen said.

“Batteries matter more than panels for Africa because storage is what makes solar reliable for off-grid and backup users,” he said.

Basil Abia, co-founder of the Nigerian energy research firm Truva Intelligence, said that “batteries have historically been expensive, and many solar installations in Africa were built without them.”

“Only recently have we started seeing more systems combining solar with battery storage,” Abia said.

He said that even without rebates, solar modules remain relatively affordable. Through 2024 and early 2025, module prices fell sharply from around $0.25 per watt in previous years to as low as $0.07 per watt.

Demand for solar, which now supplies 3% of power generation in Africa, is expected to continue growing as storage improves reliability. Meanwhile, the heavy dependence on Chinese equipment is drawing attention to limited local manufacturing capacity.

“The VAT removal will slow, but not reverse Africa’s clean energy transition,” Abia said. “Countries that use this moment to accelerate local manufacturing will emerge stronger. Those that do not will remain exposed to Beijing’s next industrial policy adjustment.”

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