Strong expectations driven by AWS and AI

​Heading into the release, market expectations remain robust reflecting optimism. Analysts forecast revenue to increase by close to 14% to $188 billion (by roughly 21% to $16.84 billion for advertising revenue) and earnings of around $1.63 per share, up from $1.59 in Q1 2025.

​A key driver is Amazon Web Services (AWS), which continues to benefit from accelerating demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud computing. Recent forecasts suggest AWS growth could reach mid-20% levels, supported by partnerships and enterprise adoption of AI workloads. 

​This segment remains Amazon’s most profitable division and is likely to be the primary contributor to earnings growth in Q1 as AWS generates substantially higher margins than retail operations.

​Alongside cloud, Amazon’s core retail business is expected to show steady growth, particularly in North America, where marketplace activity and logistics efficiency have improved. Analysts anticipate continued expansion in online sales, supported by faster delivery times, Prime membership engagement and a stabilising consumer environment.

​The company’s digital advertising business is also emerging as a key profit driver, benefiting from increased seller activity and higher-margin revenue streams tied to its marketplace ecosystem. 

​Despite strong top-line momentum, investors will be assessing how Amazon is managing cost pressures, particularly in logistics, labour and energy. The recent surge in oil prices – driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – could increase shipping and fulfilment costs, potentially weighing on margins in the quarter.

​At the same time, broader macroeconomic uncertainty in the wake of the war in the Middle East remains a risk. Elevated interest rates and inflation could impact consumer spending patterns, particularly in discretionary categories, while currency fluctuations may affect international revenue.

​This sets a relatively high bar for the Q1 results, meaning that even a modest miss on expectations could trigger volatility.

​The Q1 update will be closely scrutinised for several key indicators determining market reaction:

• ​AWS growth rates and commentary on AI demand

• ​Retail sales trends across North America and international

• ​Advertising revenue growth and profitability

• ​Overall operating margins and cost management

​Investors will also focus on forward guidance, particularly any commentary on demand trends, cost pressures and capital expenditure linked to AI infrastructure.

​Amazon enters its first-quarter earnings release with strong momentum across its core businesses, particularly in cloud computing and advertising. However, the combination of high expectations, rising costs and macroeconomic uncertainty creates a more nuanced outlook.

​If the company can deliver solid growth while maintaining margin discipline, it is likely to reinforce its position as one of the leading beneficiaries of the AI-driven technology cycle.

​Conversely, any signs of slowing cloud growth or increased cost pressures could weigh on sentiment after a strong run in the share price. 

​The Amazon share price – up around 10% year-to-date and thus outperforming the Nasdaq 100 by around 4% – has this week briefly overcome its November 2025 record high at $258.60 by rising to $258.79. If overcome, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the December 2022 to September 2023 bull market, projected higher from the October 2023 low, at $286.71 will be in focus. Further up lies the psychological $300 mark.