According to Zhitong Finance APP, HSBC issued a research report reaffirming its “Buy” rating for Amazon (AMZN.US) with a target price of $300. The bank holds a positive outlook on Amazon’s upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report.

Q4 is expected to continue the tradition of “beating expectations”

HSBC expects Amazon’s Q4 performance to maintain its previous robust momentum based on several factors: First, management guidance remains cautiously conservative, leaving room for actual results to exceed expectations. Historical data shows that Amazon has achieved operating profits above the upper limit of guidance for 12 consecutive quarters. Second, AWS cloud services are reaccelerating growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 20.2% year-over-year (up from 17.5% in Q2), and management considers this growth rate “sustainable.” HSBC forecasts that AWS growth will benefit from two key factors: expansion of cloud computing capacity (with plans to double capacity by 2027) and media reports indicating that AWS has raised EC2 service prices by approximately 15%. Third, strong sales figures during Black Friday/Cyber Monday (U.S. e-commerce sales grew 7.7% year-over-year to $44.2 billion) demonstrate resilient consumer demand, positioning Amazon to capture market share through its logistics network and discount strategies.

Four strategic themes driving growth in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, HSBC believes the following four core aspects should be closely monitored: cloud demand, enterprise AI adoption, e-commerce market share, and capital expenditure.

Sustained strong demand for AWS: The global cloud computing market faces capacity bottlenecks, while AWS plans to add significantly more computing power over the next two years than competitors. Additionally, the launch of the Trainium3 AI chip (with performance improvements exceeding four times that of its predecessor) will reduce AI development costs, attracting more enterprise clients.

Deepening enterprise AI adoption: AWS unveiled multiple AI innovations (such as Nova models and Frontier Agents) at its “re:Invent” conference at the end of 2025, accelerating digital transformation among enterprise clients. HSBC anticipates that AWS will benefit from surging demand for AI infrastructure.

Expansion of e-commerce market share: Amazon plans to expand next-day delivery services to over 4,000 small and medium-sized cities across the U.S., further penetrating high-frequency consumption categories like groceries. Currently ranked second in the U.S. online grocery market, upgrades to its logistics network could boost market share.

Increased capital expenditure: HSBC projects Amazon’s capital expenditure to reach $150 billion in 2026 (a 20% year-over-year increase), primarily allocated to data center expansions and logistics facility investments to support long-term growth.

In summary, HSBC believes Amazon is at an excellent equilibrium point: AWS benefits from both increased volume and pricing driven by AI computing power, while the retail business generates profits through highly efficient logistics operations. Despite short-term volatility, the bank views Amazon’s long-term growth trajectory as clear. Investors should focus on guidance regarding AWS growth rates and capital expenditure in the Q4 earnings report, as these factors will validate the company’s long-term growth path.