It’s down to the wire for officials to deliver a seven-state agreement to stabilize Lake Mead over the next 20 years. That’s why water managers are eager to attend this year’s annual policy gathering in Las Vegas.

Federal and state officials, professors, nonprofit leaders and environmentalists will gather on the Strip this week for the Colorado River Water Users Association conference at Caesars Palace. It’s the largest meeting in the Colorado River world, happening as time runs out for seven states to agree on how to manage a shrinking river.

The 2007 guidelines for how the river is shared will expire at the end of next year.

“We’re really at a hydrologic precipice,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “And we’re at this impasse with very little idea about what the future holds. The volume needs to be turned up.”

For Southern Nevada, where about 90 percent of the region’s water supply comes from Lake Mead, what happens inside the negotiating room is directly tied to its future. With Lake Mead only 28 percent full and snowpack at the river’s headwaters repeatedly failing to deliver in a way that could lift the basin out of drought, more reductions in use for all states are likely.

The meeting in Las Vegas is the one time each year when the basin comes together — with representation from Native American tribes, Mexico, the Bureau of Reclamation and the seven states — to regroup and plan for the year ahead.

A much-needed update on negotiations

Conference organizers recently added a panel with all seven states’ principal negotiators to the final day’s agenda.

That comes as a welcome change from last year, said Elizabeth Koebele, a professor who studies water governance at University of Nevada, Reno. At that conference, the seven states declined to meet as a group and instead spoke on separate panels, highlighting both a geographic and ideological divide.

Most recently, the seven states failed to meet a deadline last month from the Bureau of Reclamation to deliver a framework for an agreement.

“I was really disappointed in November,” Koebele said. “Now, I’m slightly more hopeful, but there are all these other challenges with the fact that it is getting so tight on time. We’re going to have to move quickly.”

Nevada, California and Arizona, which make up the Lower Basin, have made their case that shortages should be shared throughout the basin. In the other camp, the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming argue that their restraints are already too great in the face of declining snowpack, and that they’re already having to make tough choices about cutting off certain water users.

In the absence of a seven-state consensus, Trump administration officials have indicated they would intervene, though that route is not Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s preference.

“When it comes to the Colorado River, the future really hinges on how well we plan together,” Bureau of Reclamation spokesman Peter Soeth said in a statement. “It’s not just about one country, state or agency — it’s about everyone being on the same page.”

No major announcements expected

John Entsminger, general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority and the state’s governor-appointed representative in the interstate talks, said in an interview Wednesday that he doesn’t expect any major negotiation updates to come out of the conference.

If the states meet it, the public will have a chance to weigh in after the next deadline — Feb. 14, when the Bureau of Reclamation is expected to release a final environmental impact statement. Aside from the steps required by the National Environmental Policy Act, the public is largely left out of the closed-door negotiations.

“I think you could take it as a sign of progress that all seven states are still at the table, still talking,” Entsminger said. “Nobody’s stormed out of the room, and sometimes that’s as big of a sign as you have, that people are still plugging away, even though there are not tangible public announcements being made.”

Of the four Upper Basin principals, only Utah’s negotiator, Colorado River Authority of Utah Chair Gene Shawcroft, responded to a request for comment. Shawcroft is also president of the Colorado River Water Users Association.

“Utah remains fully committed to working toward a seven-state agreement that protects the Colorado River for everyone who depends on it,” Shawcroft said in a statement. “CRWUA provides an important opportunity for frank, collaborative conversations as we navigate the challenges ahead.”

Shawcroft alluded to a need for “additional clarity” from the Interior Department on the next steps for the public input process. Some of that could be forthcoming, especially during Wednesday’s keynote address from Assistant Secretary of Water and Science Andrea Travnicek or the scheduled negotiation talk from Acting Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron.

Nonprofits watching for progress

Clarity could come later, too: In a letter Tuesday, Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo revealed that Burgum had invited all seven state governors and appointed negotiators to Washington, D.C. — a meeting Lombardo would like to see scheduled for January. Regardless, environmentalists say this conference will be one to watch.

Celene Hawkins, The Nature Conservancy’s Colorado River program director, said that aside from the important negotiations, the conference is a chance to re-evaluate approaches toward all of the system’s living creatures.

“Sometimes it’s easier for water managers to think of the system as a series of pipes and dams that deliver water to human users, but this is, in fact, a river system,” Hawkins said. “The task ahead of us is how we figure out how to take care of people and nature into a drier future, and really think hard about how we use every drop of water.”

And when it comes to news about the negotiations, the conference could still yield some interesting updates, added Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River program director at the National Audubon Society.

“Nobody has walked away, so I take that as a sign that there is still a chance,” Pitt said. “Sometimes it is these final, pressured moments of negotiations that make decisions possible.”

Contact Alan Halaly at ahalaly@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AlanHalaly on X.