Apple shares have averaged 18% gain in quarter after July earnings over last 5 years

Apple Inc. is slated to report its latest financial results Tuesday in one of the most widely watched reports of earnings season.

The iPhone maker is expected to report earnings of $1.23 a share on revenue of $38 billion for its fiscal third quarter, according to the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet.

Because Apple typically reports after the market closes, the stock’s reaction to the company’s latest financial results is mostly reflected in the following day’s trading.

Going back to 2009, Apple stock has averaged a gain of 1.57% on the day following its July results. That’s second only to the stock’s average performance after April results, when it’s averaged a 5% gain.

Apple’s historic gains between its July and October earnings reports have been spectacular. The stock has averaged gains of 18% between its July report and its October report over the past 5 years. That’s nearly double the stock’s next best report-to-report average of 9.9%, for the period between April and July. 

Apple shares have typically performed well in the period following the July earnings report because Apple has enjoys huge buzz ahead of new product introductions in the fall.

This year, the stock has seen a big surge since its April report thanks to the company’s boosted share buyback, and dividend increase. Apple split its stock 7-for-1 during the quarter as well, in a bid to make it more accessible to retail investors.

– Tom Bemis