Apple Stock (AAPL) Before the Market Opens Dec. 26, 2025: Latest News, iPhone Demand Signa

December 26, 2025

Published: Dec. 25, 2025 — U.S. markets are closed today for Christmas Day. Trading resumes Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, with a full regular session after the early close on Dec. 24. ^[1]

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) heads into the post‑holiday open with three storylines dominating investor attention: fresh China shipment data, a rising tide of global App Store regulation, and a growing belief on Wall Street that 2026 becomes Apple’s “AI monetization” year—even as Apple itself has acknowledged some Siri upgrades are delayed until 2026. ^[2]

Below is what to know before the bell on Dec. 26—including the latest headlines, the most cited analyst theses, and the practical checklist traders typically watch in the thin-liquidity “Santa Claus rally” window.

Where Apple stock stands heading into Dec. 26 (price, trend, and context)

Apple last traded in the shortened Dec. 24 session at about $273.81, up roughly 0.5% on the day, with an intraday range around $271–$275. ^[3]

Two numbers frame the near-term setup:

Distance from recent highs: Apple hit a 52‑week high near $288.6 on Dec. 3, and is roughly ~5% below that peak. ^[4]
Market value: Apple’s market cap is hovering around $4.05 trillion as of Dec. 24, keeping it in the ultra‑mega‑cap bracket where small percent moves can sway major indexes. ^[5]

Valuation is part of the debate. Apple’s trailing P/E is around 30 and the stock’s indicated dividend yield is roughly ~0.4%, which means many investors are effectively paying up for durability (ecosystem + Services) and the next growth catalyst (AI + upgrade cycle). ^[6]

Liquidity note for Dec. 26: Holiday-adjacent sessions often bring lighter participation. That can amplify moves—up or down—on headlines, analyst notes, or macro risk-on/off shifts. Meanwhile, seasonality watchers point out Dec. 26 has historically skewed positive for the broader market, though that’s a tendency—not a rule. ^[7]

The newest Apple-linked data point: China “foreign-branded” phone shipments surged in November

One of the most market-relevant Apple reads this week came out of Beijing: foreign‑branded phone shipments in China (including Apple iPhones) rose 128.4% year-over-year in November, based on Reuters calculations from CAICT data. ^[8]

Why it matters for AAPL before Dec. 26:

Investors often treat the “foreign‑branded” bucket as a rough proxy for iPhone momentum in China—imperfect, but directionally watched because Apple is the dominant foreign brand in that category.
China has been a high‑sensitivity variable for Apple sentiment across 2025, so a sharp positive swing in this dataset can influence near-term positioning.

The market’s key nuance: this is shipments data, not Apple’s reported sales—and it aggregates foreign brands. Still, in a low‑news holiday week, this is the kind of macro datapoint that can affect AAPL narrative heading into the open. ^[9]

iPhone 17 cycle signals: strong early demand, but lead times are easing into year-end

Apple’s iPhone cycle remains the core driver of near-term fundamentals. Two widely cited signals have shaped the 2025 narrative:

1) Early-cycle strength

Reuters reported in October that Counterpoint data indicated the iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the U.S., with the 17 lineup outselling the iPhone 16 series by about 14% in the first 10 days in those markets. ^[10]

2) Late-cycle normalization (important for the “is demand fading?” debate)

By late December, channel checks are increasingly about supply/demand balance. A JPMorgan note summarized by TipRanks said iPhone 17 lead times have “moderated” in recent weeks, with average delivery times around ~3 days, roughly matching the same point in the prior iPhone 16 cycle. ^[11]

How markets usually interpret that mix:

Bullish interpretation: easing lead times can mean Apple is catching up on supply while demand remains healthy, supporting units and revenue through the rest of the cycle. ^[12]
Bearish interpretation: shorter waits can also suggest demand is cooling after an early spike (especially if promotions increase).

Investors will likely keep watching any incremental data—carrier commentary, channel checks, and China read-through—because Apple enters the next earnings report with iPhone expectations still doing most of the heavy lifting. ^[13]

Apple’s own guidance is still the anchor: Cook forecast double-digit iPhone growth for the holiday quarter

The most important “forecast” for Apple remains what management told the market.

In an October interview with Reuters, CEO Tim Cook said Apple expected iPhone sales in the holiday-focused quarter to grow by double digits year-over-year, and total revenue to rise 10%–12% year-over-year—an outlook that beat consensus expectations cited by Reuters. ^[14]

That guidance matters heading into Dec. 26 because:

It sets the backdrop for how investors interpret every incremental datapoint (like China shipments and iPhone lead times).
It frames the risk of expectations creep: if the stock runs hard into earnings, even a “good” quarter can be graded harshly.

Cook also noted Apple had struggled to meet demand for some iPhone 17 models earlier, and Reuters reported there were China-related launch delays for the iPhone Air model referenced in that same coverage. ^[15]

AI is the next big catalyst—but Apple has also admitted delays

Apple’s official position: some Siri upgrades slipped to 2026

Reuters reported that Apple said certain AI improvements aimed at making Siri more personalized and able to act across apps are delayed until 2026. Apple did not provide a detailed reason in that statement, according to Reuters. ^[16]

Wall Street’s current framing: “Siri 2.0” as a 2026 moment

Even with acknowledged delays, a steady drumbeat of analyst commentary suggests many expect early 2026 to be when Apple’s AI story becomes more tangible.

Investor’s Business Daily summarized a view that the rollout of a more advanced Siri (“Siri 2.0”) is now expected around March or April, and may be powered by Google’s Gemini models. ^[17]
Reports citing Bloomberg (via MacRumors and other outlets) have also pointed to Gemini as a likely under-the-hood partner model for a revamped Siri, though Apple has not confirmed this publicly. ^[18]

For Apple stock, the AI question heading into Dec. 26 isn’t “does Apple have AI features?” (it does). The market question is:

Can Apple translate AI into (1) faster upgrade cycles and (2) higher Services monetization—without undermining its privacy positioning or margins? ^[19]

Regulatory and legal headlines: App Store pressure is rising globally (Italy, Brazil, Japan, U.S.)

If AI is the upside narrative, App Store regulation is the most consistent downside risk to Apple’s Services economics—and it has produced major headlines in multiple regions this month.

Italy: antitrust fine tied to App Store and privacy policy issues

Reuters reported Italy’s competition authority fined Apple and two divisions 98.6 million euros (about $115 million) over alleged abuse of dominance related to the App Store, with Apple saying it strongly disagreed and would appeal. ^[20]

Brazil: agreement to allow third-party app stores and alternative payments (with a 105-day timeline)

Reuters reported Apple will allow other app stores in iOS in Brazil and also allow third‑party payments or links out for transactions, settling a case with CADE. The agreement runs three years and includes a reported 105‑day implementation window once terms become mandatory. ^[21]

Japan: Apple announced iOS changes to comply with new law

Apple itself announced changes in Japan to comply with the Mobile Software Competition Act, enabling alternative app marketplaces and alternative payment processing options, starting with an iOS release referenced in the announcement. ^[22]
The Verge also reported on Japan’s opening to third‑party marketplaces and payment processing, putting the move into the broader global context of App Store scrutiny. ^[23]

United States: court scrutiny continues

Reuters reported a U.S. judge ruled Apple violated a court order requiring more competition for app downloads and payment methods, and that Apple would be referred to federal prosecutors. ^[24]

Why this matters before the open: Services is one of Apple’s highest-margin narratives, and App Store policy is a material part of that. Each new jurisdictional change can create fears of a “domino effect”—even if the actual financial impact unfolds slowly. ^[25]

Consumer demand backdrop: holiday spending held up, and electronics led growth

Apple’s near-term revenue is still closely linked to consumer discretionary health. Reuters reported that Visa and Mastercard data showed U.S. holiday retail sales growth around ~4%, and that electronics (including smartphones) led spending growth in Visa’s data set. ^[26]

That’s not an Apple-only signal, but it supports the “steady consumer” narrative heading into the post‑Christmas trade, especially for mega-cap consumer tech where the holiday season is the biggest quarter of the year. ^[27]

What analysts are forecasting now: the bulls are loud, but targets vary

Wall Street’s Apple debate into year-end has become unusually “barbelled”: many analysts are positive on the iPhone cycle and potential AI upside, while others keep pointing to valuation and execution risk.

The bullish end: Wedbush raises to $350

TipRanks’ “The Fly” item reported Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised his Apple price target to $350 from $320, citing a view that 2026 becomes the year Apple enters the AI “revolution” and pointing to iPhone 17 momentum into year-end (including China). ^[28]

The “constructive but not euphoric” camp: Morgan Stanley to $315

Multiple summaries reported Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised Apple’s target to $315 from $305, maintaining an Overweight stance, with the thesis tied to 2026 opportunity even amid component cost pressures (memory) and an evolving AI roadmap. ^[29]

Street “plumbing” that traders may watch on Dec. 26

TipRanks’ JPMorgan channel-check summary also cited an average AAPL price target around ~$299 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus among tracked analysts—useful as a sentiment gauge, not a guarantee. ^[30]

Takeaway for Dec. 26: With Apple already near record territory this month, the stock may trade more on (a) incremental news flow and (b) whether investors believe the AI upside justifies today’s valuation—especially if regulators keep tightening App Store rules. ^[31]

Key dates and the “before the bell” checklist for Friday, Dec. 26

1) Know the schedule and what it implies

Dec. 24: U.S. equity markets had an early close. ^[32]
Dec. 25: Markets closed for Christmas Day. ^[33]
Dec. 26: full trading day (major exchanges confirmed they remain open as scheduled). ^[34]

2) Watch these Apple-specific “headline levers” pre-open

Any follow-through coverage on China shipments and what that implies for iPhone momentum. ^[35]
Any incremental developments on Brazil/Italy/Japan App Store policy changes or appeals. ^[36]
Additional analyst notes on iPhone 17 demand/lead times and the early 2026 AI timeline. ^[37]

3) Treat “earnings date” as estimated unless Apple confirms

Several market calendars list Apple’s next report around late January 2026 (often Jan. 29, 2026, after close, though some label it unconfirmed/algorithmic). If you’re trading around that, rely on Apple IR confirmation when posted. ^[38]

Bottom line for AAPL into the Dec. 26 open

Apple stock enters the post‑Christmas session with a supportive near-term tape—strong mega-cap positioning, signs of resilient holiday electronics demand, and fresh China shipment data that traders may treat as an iPhone tailwind. ^[39]

But the market is also staring at two real constraints:

Regulatory pressure on the App Store is accelerating globally, with concrete actions in Italy and Brazil and major rule-driven changes in Japan—each with potential margin implications over time. ^[40]
AI expectations are rising faster than Apple’s confirmed timeline, especially as Apple itself acknowledged some Siri improvements are delayed to 2026—meaning execution risk remains a headline mover. ^[41]

For Friday’s open, the practical setup is straightforward: AAPL will likely trade on narrative confirmation—China demand read‑through, “Siri 2.0” timing chatter, and the ongoing global App Store squeeze—more than on any single new product launch. ^[42]

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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