Argentex Group PLC (LON:AGFX) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 31% in the last quarter. But that is little comfort to those holding over the last half decade, sitting on a big loss. The share price has failed to impress anyone , down a sizable 72% during that time. So we’re not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.

It’s worthwhile assessing if the company’s economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let’s do just that.

View our latest analysis for Argentex Group

We don’t think that Argentex Group’s modest trailing twelve month profit has the market’s full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Argentex Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

Investors should note that there’s a difference between Argentex Group’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Argentex Group’s TSR of was a loss of 69% for the 5 years. That wasn’t as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

Argentex Group shareholders are down 26% for the year, but the market itself is up 15%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example – Argentex Group has 4 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn’t be ignored) we think you should know about.