Assessing Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL) Valuation After Texas Medical Cannabis License App

December 8, 2025

Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL) just picked up a key regulatory win, with Texas granting its subsidiary conditional approval for a Dispensing Organization license under the Compassionate Use Program, opening the door to a major new medical market.

See our latest analysis for Trulieve Cannabis.

Despite this Texas catalyst, Trulieve’s 1 month share price return of minus 8.97 percent and 3 month share price return of minus 21.67 percent show momentum has recently cooled. Even though the 1 year total shareholder return of 10.5 percent still points to gradual rebuilding after deep multi year losses.

If this move into medical markets has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other regulated healthcare names via healthcare stocks and see what else fits your strategy.

With shares still down sharply over three and five years, yet trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, investors now face a key question: Is Trulieve quietly undervalued, or is the market already factoring in Texas-fueled growth?

Against a last close of CA$8.42, the most widely followed narrative implies a fair value more than double today’s price, framing Trulieve as deeply mispriced.

The company’s successful expansion of branded product lines, such as Modern Flower, Roll One, and new THC beverage offerings, both through proprietary development and partnerships, is expected to strengthen brand equity, boost customer loyalty, and support recurring revenues and higher margins in a market that is increasingly valuing differentiated products.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, rising margins, and a punchy future earnings multiple can still justify such a big upside gap? Want to see the full playbook behind that valuation jump, or which specific profit assumptions have to land almost perfectly for this price target to stick? The full narrative breaks down every step.

Result: Fair Value of $18.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, sustained pricing pressure and any setback on federal or Florida level reform could quickly erode margins and challenge that upbeat valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Trulieve Cannabis narrative.

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh perspective in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trulieve Cannabis research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TRUL.cnsx.

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