Aurora Energy Research, a global energy market analysis provider, says that Mexico’s renewable energy market has shown strong signs of reactivation following the award of approximately 11GW of renewable capacity across two competitive processes resolved in the past six months. The firm projects that combined installed solar and wind capacity in Mexico will rise from approximately 17GW today to 26GW by 2030.

The most recent process, the second renewable tender under the framework established by the Ley del Sector Eléctrico (LSE) approved last year, was resolved this week. According to results made public by local media, 114% of the 6.5GW offered was ultimately awarded, pending confirmation of final results, particularly the proportion of battery storage required for the awarded projects.

Aurora noted that this outcome was broadly consistent with its most recent forecast for the Mexican electricity market, which had anticipated the tender would be fully covered. Under this second tender, structured around the mixed public-private scheme, submitted projects represented six times the total capacity offered.

The first tender, open exclusively to private developers and resolved in December 2025, saw submissions equivalent to 3.5 times the offered capacity, though only 55% of the offered capacity was ultimately awarded. The June process resulted in the award of 7.4GW, bringing the combined total awarded across both processes to 10.9GW in a six-month span.

These figures align closely with the 7,411MW figure CFE announced on June 5 for the mixed development scheme award, the 114% figure Aurora cites likely reflects additional context on the full tendered capacity versus the awarded total, including battery storage components still pending confirmation.

Storage Gets a Regulatory Push

Aurora highlights the LSE’s effect on energy storage deployment. The law has accelerated battery storage development in Mexico through the introduction of a specific regulatory framework for batteries. The first tender awarded 1.3GW of storage capacity, and the second tender is expected to represent an additional boost to battery deployment.

Aurora’s analysis indicates that the profitability of battery projects co-located with renewable generation varies by location and technology, and that optimal battery integration levels exceed 30% for some photovoltaic projects, a figure consistent with the storage requirements embedded in CFE’s mixed development scheme guidelines, which mandate battery capacity equivalent to 30% of generation capacity for at least three hours for new intermittent renewable plants.

Laura Picardo, Senior Associate for LATAM, Aurora Energy Research, framed the results as validation of the firm’s earlier modeling. “In our model, and in our forecast for Mexico published in April, we had already incorporated that the recently resolved mixed tender was going to be fully covered. We celebrate the results of the two renewable tenders called and resolved following the approval of the LSE last year, which represent a step forward in Mexico’s energy transition. Additionally, further calls are currently underway, in this case for renewable and storage plants. All these initiatives will undoubtedly translate into a strong reactivation of the Mexican renewable market.”

Picardo’s reference to additional ongoing calls aligns with statements made by SENER Deputy Minister Jorge Islas Samperio following the June 5 mixed scheme award, who indicated that only one more call would be needed to cover the approximately 16,500MW of renewable energy the administration requires, alongside the separate private-sector call being prepared for launch in June to allocate the roughly 3GW that went unallocated in the December 2025 process.