The Cardano (ADA 19.85%) cryptocurrency is on a roll. As of this writing on March 3, the smart contracts specialty coin had gained 62% in 24 hours. It’s up by 48% over the past week.

Larger and older smart contracts platform Ethereum (ETH 5.44%) is moving in the opposite direction. Despite a modest jump on Monday, the digital coin is trading 11% lower in seven days.

Should you expect Cardano’s momentum to drive the coin much higher, or is Ethereum positioned to come back swinging? Let’s take a look.

Ethereum’s secret weapon: It’s an industry standard

Ethereum was the first smart contract system out there. Developers of decentralized applications have largely been trained on this blockchain ecosystem’s programming methods and languages, making it a de facto industry standard. It’s the largest developer community today with more than 16,000 programmers registered in the latest Electric Capital developer report. Solana (SOL 8.24%) comes next with about 6,450 names. That’s a substantial competitive advantage, and several smaller cryptocurrencies are working to make their smart contract systems compatible with Ethereum’s standards.

In other words, Ethereum is pretty much guaranteed to remain a driving force in the cryptocurrency market for years to come. Even if another blockchain comes up with a technically superior solution, it won’t be easy to overcome Ethereum’s enormous head start. The first killer app in the Web3 era will almost certainly be Ethereum-based.

That’s the basis of Ethereum’s market value, second only to Bitcoin (BTC 7.57%) in the crypto world. Its long-term returns should not spring from social media hype or a restricted coin supply. It’s all about real-world usage, which should follow when people are ready to adopt decentralized apps for everyday tasks such as bank-like services, online games, and privacy-oriented media platforms.

Again, other smart contract systems may snag a small part of this enormous future market, but Ethereum is the name to beat. And it won’t be easy.

Cardano’s quest: From classroom theory to commercial success

Cardano is one of those alternative smart contract solutions, started in 2015 by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson. He left the Ethereum project before the first coin was minted, hoping to take the project in a more commercial direction. Cardano is indeed more commerce-minded, with more limited access to the program code and a centralized approach to the system’s development.

So it’s a very serious platform for blockchain developers. However, it comes with just 449 developers in the Electric Capital report. Its core development language is Haskell, a deeply academic system with a steep learning curve. Like Haskell, Cardano is directly based on academic research. The whole package is very powerful in theory, but difficult to use in practice — especially if you started out with Ethereum’s simpler Solidity language.

Once again, the market value of cryptocurrencies in the smart contract niche depends on getting developers to apply them to useful tools, followed by widespread user adoption. I’m not saying that Cardano is worthless from this point of view, but it will climb a steep hill before achieving long-term success.

Why I’m buying Ethereum, not Cardano

Cardano’s recent price surge was the result of a political move, as President Trump named it as one of the cryptocurrencies that should be part of the upcoming strategic reserve of digital assets. Ethereum also belongs there, but that was always obvious. Cardano saw a bigger price jump because of the unexpected nature of its selection.

I feel like I’m comparing a lightfooted long-distance runner to a heavy turtle here. Ethereum has a clear path to long-term success in the decentralized finance and Web3 markets. Cardano could get there too but it faces long odds and a lot of legwork. I have a couple of coins from years ago, when I was figuring out the differences between different cryptocurrencies and trying to invest in the most promising projects. But I have a lot more Ethereum, and am still an active buyer of the leading smart contracts platform.

So this is not a close race in my eyes. Ethereum is a great long-term investment while Cardano looks more speculative. Recent price chart squiggles did nothing to change that reality.