Big Tech stocks enter the coming week with two forces pulling in opposite directions: a seasonal tailwind from the year-end “Santa Claus rally” window, and a growing market debate over whether the AI buildout is delivering returns fast enough to justify the spending. Add a holiday-shortened trading calendar and thin liquidity, and the setup is primed for outsized moves—up or down—on relatively little news.

Reuters’ week-ahead outlook highlights how investor sentiment has swung repeatedly in recent weeks around two themes: scrutiny of massive AI infrastructure spending and shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path in 2026. ^[1]

Below is a week-ahead briefing for Big Tech stocks—covering the most relevant headlines and analyst narratives circulating as of 21.12.2025, plus a practical catalyst calendar for the days ahead.

The Week-Ahead Market Calendar: Holiday Hours and the Data That Could Move Mega-Caps

This is a holiday-shortened week in U.S. markets. According to Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar:

• Tuesday, Dec. 23 brings the initial estimate of Q3 GDP, plus durable goods, industrial production/capacity utilization, and consumer confidence.
• Wednesday, Dec. 24 brings initial jobless claims, and U.S. stock markets close early (1 p.m. ET) while bond markets close at 2 p.m. ET.
• Thursday, Dec. 25: U.S. stock and bond markets are closed for Christmas.
• Friday, Dec. 26: no major scheduled data on that calendar, but markets reopen into typically lighter, post-holiday volume. ^[2]

Exchange operators have also confirmed that despite a federal government closure order for Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, major U.S. exchanges remain open on those dates, sticking to the previously planned schedule (including the early close on Dec. 24). ^[3]

For Big Tech investors, the practical implication is simple: macro headlines may hit harder than usual because fewer participants are at their desks and liquidity is thinner—especially after the early close on Wednesday.

The Big Tech Setup: Three Narratives Driving Price Action Into Year-End

1) AI Spending vs. AI Payoff: The Market Is Getting Pickier

The core storyline behind many of December’s tech swings is not whether AI matters long-term—but whether the market has already priced in perfection while costs keep rising.

Reuters noted that back-to-back unsettling updates tied to the AI infrastructure trade helped reignite “AI bubble” concerns, even while many investors remain reluctant to call a top. ^[4]

That debate has been amplified by “second-order” AI names (cloud and chip suppliers) where margins, capex, and financing costs are under the microscope—dynamics that often spill back into the mega-cap complex because Big Tech is funding much of the AI buildout.

2) The AI Funding Machine: OpenAI’s Orbit Matters to Mega-Caps

Big Tech is also trading off developments in the AI capital ecosystem—especially around OpenAI, which is tightly connected to cloud demand, model competition, and AI chip orders.

• Reuters reported OpenAI has held preliminary talks about raising at around a $750 billion valuation, potentially raising as much as $100 billion. ^[5]
• Reuters also reported SoftBank racing to meet a $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by year-end, describing asset sales and financing options, and pointing to the strain even large dealmakers face when AI infrastructure bills come due. ^[6]
• And Reuters reported Amazon is in talks about investing roughly $10 billion in OpenAI, with OpenAI’s cloud needs and partnerships highlighted as the competitive chessboard shifts. ^[7]

Why this matters for Big Tech stocks: the more the market focuses on who pays for AI compute (and on what terms), the more attention shifts toward cloud profitability, chip supply constraints, and monetization timelines across the mega-cap group.

3) Geopolitics and Regulation: Export Controls and Platform Rules Are Back in Focus

Alongside AI economics, Big Tech investors are contending with policy risk—both in Washington and abroad.

A key headline entering the week: Reuters reported the Trump administration has launched an interagency review that could pave the way for the first shipments to China of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, after Trump said earlier this month he would allow sales with the U.S. collecting a 25% fee. The license review process described could take up to 30 days for agencies to weigh in, with the final decision ultimately resting with the President. ^[8]

Meanwhile, Japan is forcing changes to the App Store model, and Europe continues to challenge targeted advertising practices—two issues with direct implications for Apple and Meta’s high-margin revenue streams. ^[9]

Company-by-Company: What to Watch in Big Tech Stocks This Week

Apple (AAPL): Japan App Store Opening, Services Narrative, and Legal Overhang

Apple heads into the week with a fresh policy-driven catalyst: Japan’s Mobile Software Competition Act is pushing Apple to open up app distribution and payments.

Apple confirmed it is implementing changes in Japan that create new options for developers to distribute apps via alternative marketplaces and to process payments outside Apple In-App Purchase, alongside added security measures like notarization and authorization requirements for marketplaces. Apple said developers can integrate the new capabilities beginning with iOS 26.2. ^[10]

Reuters also reported Apple is opening iPhones in Japan to alternative app stores and noted that Japan’s move is the latest jurisdiction to pry open Apple’s App Store model; Reuters reported Apple’s Japan terms could allow commissions “as little as 5%” for sales made through those marketplaces (with additional details on payments and commissions). ^[11]

Week-ahead angle:
In a low-volume holiday week, Apple can trade on “services multiple” headlines—anything that looks like incremental pressure on App Store economics tends to matter. Even if the near-term revenue impact is limited, investors may use Japan as a template for how quickly other regions could push similar concessions.

Microsoft (MSFT): Cloud Competition, AI Capex Scrutiny, and Litigation Risk

Microsoft remains one of the market’s core “AI platform” proxies. In the near term, the stock is likely to move with the broader narrative about AI monetization vs. infrastructure costs, rather than on company-specific product news.

But there is also a regulatory/litigation thread worth tracking: Reuters reported Microsoft is fighting a 2.1 billion-pound ($2.81 billion) UK lawsuit alleging it overcharged businesses to use Windows Server on rival cloud platforms, with regulators examining cloud practices more broadly. ^[12]

Week-ahead angle:
With major economic data landing Tuesday and a thin tape into the early Wednesday close, Microsoft may behave like a “macro-tech” hybrid: sensitive to rates and growth expectations, but also to AI sentiment. Watch whether investors treat litigation headlines as noise—or as part of a growing global push to constrain cloud “lock-in.”

Alphabet (GOOGL): TPU vs. Nvidia, a Massive Cloud Security Deal, and Legal Noise

Alphabet enters the week with multiple AI-and-cloud catalysts:

(1) Google’s push against Nvidia’s software moat
Reuters reported Google is developing an internal initiative (“TorchTPU”) aimed at making its Tensor Processing Units more compatible with PyTorch, the widely used AI framework heavily supported by Meta. The effort is designed to reduce reliance on Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem and make Google’s AI chips more attractive. ^[13]

(2) Google Cloud’s landmark security partnership
Reuters reported Google Cloud and Palo Alto Networks announced an expanded partnership, with one source telling Reuters it is Google Cloud’s largest security services deal—approaching $10 billion over several years. ^[14]

(3) Google’s lawsuit over scraping/search abuse
Reuters reported Google sued a Texas company (SerpApi), alleging it used hundreds of millions of fake search requests to scrape Google results at large scale and sell the content onward. ^[15]

Week-ahead angle:
Alphabet has two potential “bull case” levers in the very near term: (a) evidence that AI investment is turning into Cloud contract wins, and (b) credible progress toward lower-cost AI compute through its own chips. If markets are “grading” Big Tech on AI ROI, Alphabet’s cloud/security momentum is one of the cleaner narratives available right now.

Amazon (AMZN): OpenAI Investment Talks and an AI Leadership Shakeup

Amazon’s stock is likely to stay tied to AI infrastructure and cloud narratives this week.

Reuters reported Amazon is in talks to invest around $10 billion in OpenAI, with the discussions described as fluid; Reuters also noted OpenAI’s November cloud deal to buy services from Amazon (reported as $38 billion). ^[16]

Separately, Reuters reported Amazon is restructuring its AI organization, with veteran Rohit Prasad departing by year-end and longtime executive Peter DeSantis taking on a broader remit spanning advanced technologies including AI models and custom silicon. ^[17]

Week-ahead angle:
Amazon is being priced as both (1) a cloud beneficiary of AI and (2) a company spending heavily to defend its cloud position. In the coming week, sentiment could hinge on whether the market reads OpenAI-related headlines as incremental AWS demand (positive) or as further evidence of an arms race where everyone must spend more just to keep up.

Meta (META): Europe’s Targeted Ads Challenge Is a Real Macro Risk for the Stock

For Meta, the week-ahead risk is less about AI chips and more about advertising’s regulatory foundations.

A Reuters report on Austria’s Supreme Court decision said the court ruled Meta’s personalized advertising model unlawful and ordered changes to how user data is handled, describing the decision as a binding precedent across the EU and requiring broad user access to data within 14 days of request. ^[18]

Week-ahead angle:
In a thin holiday week, regulatory headlines can have an outsized impact—especially when they touch core economics. Investors may debate how quickly (or whether) this forces meaningful changes across Meta’s EU ad stack, and what it implies for consent-driven targeting, measurement, and pricing.

Nvidia (NVDA): China Export Review, Rising Workarounds, and New Competitive Pressure

Nvidia remains the market’s AI bellwether—and it heads into the week with a high-stakes policy catalyst.

Reuters reported the Trump administration launched an interagency review that could allow first shipments of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China, following Trump’s earlier statement about allowing sales with a 25% fee collected by the U.S. government. The report described Commerce sending license applications for review, with agencies having 30 days to weigh in. ^[19]

At the same time, global demand is spawning creative “workarounds.” The Financial Times reported Tencent secured access to advanced Nvidia chips via a partnership structure using data centers outside China (Japan and elsewhere), underscoring how demand for top-tier GPUs persists even amid restrictions. ^[20]

And competition is rising not just from AMD or custom silicon, but from hyperscalers trying to weaken Nvidia’s software advantage—like Google’s efforts to make TPUs more PyTorch-friendly. ^[21]

Week-ahead angle:
Nvidia could trade like a policy stock this week. Any hint about timing, scope, or political resistance around export approvals can move the shares quickly—especially with holiday liquidity. Longer-term, investors will keep watching whether hyperscalers’ in-house chips shift the AI profit pool, or simply expand the total market while Nvidia remains the premium supplier.

Tesla (TSLA): Governance Headlines After Musk Pay Ruling

Tesla is not always grouped with “platform AI” the way the cloud mega-caps are, but it remains part of the market’s mega-cap risk-on/risk-off complex.

Reuters reported the Delaware Supreme Court restored Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package—now valued far higher due to Tesla’s share price gains—overturning a lower-court decision and reinforcing Musk’s control position. ^[22]

Week-ahead angle:
In a quiet week, governance and leadership headlines can dominate Tesla’s tape. Investors will also look for any read-through to the company’s longer-term autonomy/robotaxi ambitions, but the near-term driver is likely sentiment and positioning rather than new fundamentals.

Forecasts and Street Mood as of 21.12.2025: “Selective AI” Is the New Consensus

A key tone shift going into the coming week is that investors and commentators increasingly frame AI not as a single trade, but as a sorting mechanism: balance-sheet strength and monetization paths matter more than hype.

Business Insider highlighted investor Danny Moses warning that an AI bubble risk is real, while emphasizing that large-cap platforms with strong cash flow (including major mega-cap tech) look better positioned than smaller players dependent on heavy capex. ^[23]

That “selectivity” theme is consistent with Reuters’ reporting that investors are becoming more discerning about AI exposure amid concerns about spending and returns. ^[24]

The Week-Ahead Checklist: What Would Actually Move Big Tech Stocks?

In practical terms, Big Tech’s next week is likely to be driven by a short list of triggers:

1. Tuesday’s macro data (GDP, durable goods, consumer confidence): Any surprise that shifts expectations for 2026 growth or rate cuts can move mega-cap tech quickly. ^[25]
2. AI capex and financing headlines: OpenAI fundraising chatter, hyperscaler spend discipline, and large AI infrastructure funding moves (SoftBank/Amazon/OpenAI newsflow) remain market-moving. ^[26]
3. China/export policy developments: Especially anything about Nvidia H200 licensing and U.S. restrictions, which also acts as a sentiment proxy for the entire AI complex. ^[27]
4. Regulatory enforcement in Europe and Japan: Meta’s targeted advertising exposure and Apple’s platform rules remain key “non-AI” fundamentals that can shift valuation narratives quickly. ^[28]

Bottom Line for the Coming Week

This is not a week where Big Tech needs earnings to move—it needs headlines, and there are plenty of them. With early closes, thin liquidity, and a market already jittery about AI spend, Big Tech stocks could swing sharply on incremental updates about:

• the Fed and growth outlook,
• the durability of AI demand (and who funds it),
• export controls and geopolitical risk,
• and platform regulation in major markets.

If the “Santa rally” window is going to show up on schedule, it may start in the same way it often does: quietly, in a thin tape—until one macro print or one policy headline forces investors to pick a side. ^[29]

References

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