Arthur Hayes: Liquidity as the Rocket Fuel for Bitcoin’s $1 Million Target

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX and founder of Maelstrom, is known for his bold market calls, and Bitcoin 2025 was no exception. He reiterated his audacious prediction that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028, driven by unrelenting global liquidity.

“Money printing is continuing,” Hayes told me, dismissing the notion that the Federal Reserve’s steady interest rates signal an end to loose monetary policy. He pointed to the U.S. government’s fiscal challenges, including mounting debt and efforts to reduce trade deficits, which he believes will force capital controls and push foreign capital out of U.S. markets.

To prevent market crashes—and preserve capital gains tax revenue—Hayes expects the government to inject liquidity through unconventional means. “Fannie and Freddie will level up their balance sheets again,” he said, estimating they could add $5 trillion in liquidity.

Additionally, exemptions to banking supplemental leverage ratios will allow banks to buy U.S. Treasury bonds with “infinite leverage,” replacing foreign capital outflows. He also highlighted potential tax changes on foreign ownership of U.S. assets, which could further drive liquidity into domestic markets.

Hayes’ thesis hinges on liquidity as the primary driver of risk assets like Bitcoin. He cautioned that simplistic metrics like M2 money supply don’t capture the nuanced ways governments create credit.

“Authorities change up because people get hip to inflation,” he explained, noting that politicians and central banks avoid overt quantitative easing to dodge public backlash. Instead, they’ll use the Treasury Department and banking system to channel monetary flows into markets.

When I pressed him on whether it’s really that simple, Hayes acknowledged the complexity: “It’s more nuanced because we don’t know how it’s gonna be created.” He sees Bitcoin’s price trajectory tied to market expectations of future liquidity, dismissing rigid four-year cycle dogmas.

“The cycle is what the cycle is,” he said, predicting a bear market post-2028 as markets inevitably “crash out” due to psychological shifts, though he believes institutional interest may temper traditional cycle dynamics.

Reflecting on his time at BitMEX, which he co-founded in 2014, Hayes shared how customer feedback led to the creation of the perpetual swap, a financial innovation that became crypto’s most traded product.

“We answered every support ticket,” he said, explaining how traders’ confusion over futures contracts inspired a product that mimicked margin trading without expiration. His key takeaway? “Focus on the clients. Give them a product they want, not what VCs think the market wants.”

Today, he’s bullish on decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid, which he sees as a spiritual successor to BitMEX’s client-driven ethos, praising its tokenomics and market fit. “They launched at a good time when people were tired of high FDV, low float VC tokens,” he noted, disclosing that he owns some Hyperliquid tokens.

Hayes is also launching a buyout fund at Maelstrom to acquire cash-flow-positive crypto companies, particularly in DeFi, for restructuring and public listings. On Bitcoin as a treasury asset, he’s agnostic, emphasizing risk tolerance: “If you’re afraid of losing money, keep it in cold storage. If you want yield, evaluate the options.”

For Hayes, Bitcoin’s path to $1 million is less about ideology and more about capitalizing on macroeconomic inevitability.

Grant Cardone: Marrying Bitcoin and Real Estate for a Balanced Portfolio

Grant Cardone, the real estate tycoon, author, and educator, brought a pragmatic yet visionary perspective to Bitcoin 2025. His Bitcoin journey began in 2013 when he accepted 100 BTC—worth $50,000 at the time—as payment for a speaking gig.

“I was Bitcoin ignorant,” he admitted, noting that he stored the coins and largely forgot about them. Today, that stash is worth over $10 million, a testament to the power of holding.

Cardone’s “come to Jesus” moment wasn’t ideological but experiential: owning Bitcoin sparked his curiosity. His advice for onboarding newcomers is simple yet effective: “Buy them a bit of Bitcoin, give them a report every few weeks, and they’ll get interested.” He believes skin in the game is the best way to draw people down the Bitcoin rabbit hole, rather than preaching about white papers or the Bitcoin Standard.

Cardone’s real estate empire, with 14,000 units generating substantial cash flow, shapes his approach to Bitcoin. He shared a poignant regret: had he converted his real estate cash flows to Bitcoin years ago, they’d be worth $3.2 billion today. This realization led him to create funds that blend institutional-quality real estate with Bitcoin holdings.

“We buy assets at 15-20% below replacement cost and stack the difference in Bitcoin,” he explained. For example, a $100 million property purchased for $85 million leaves $15 million for Bitcoin. By year four, Cardone aims for a 50-50 split, leveraging real estate’s stability and Bitcoin’s volatility to achieve “parity,” where the Bitcoin portion could effectively cost nothing.

“We expect to own $200 million worth of Bitcoin in four years that we paid nothing for,” he said, noting that real estate’s cash flow and tax benefits complement Bitcoin’s liquidity and growth potential. His funds, managing $1.6 billion from his audience, have acquired $350 million in real estate this year, paired with 500 BTC, with plans to scale to $1 billion in real estate and 2,000 BTC by year-end.

Cardone cautioned against over-leveraging Bitcoin, warning that institutions like Blackstone could exploit over-leveraged investors through margin calls. “The biggest Bitcoin theft will be when people over-leverage,” he predicted, urging investors to avoid short-term debt traps.

He’s also intrigued by Bitcoin-backed loans for real estate, envisioning a “Fannie Bit” model that combines long-term mortgages with Bitcoin’s liquidity and real estate’s illiquidity for a “perfect marriage” of assets. He warned against banks’ historical tendency to “over-leverage you, bury you in the asset, and steal it back,” citing centuries-old patterns.

For real estate investors skeptical of Bitcoin’s intangibility, Cardone’s message is clear: don’t abandon what you know, but integrate Bitcoin strategically. “It’s about position sizing,” he said, advocating for a holistic portfolio that includes real estate, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin tailored to one’s risk tolerance.

He also dismissed the idea of abandoning real estate for Bitcoin, recounting a conversation where someone suggested he sell his $5 billion real estate portfolio. “Rather than argue, combine them,” he said, emphasizing synergy over rivalry.

Dan Tapiero: Bitcoin as a Macro Asset Powering a Broader Ecosystem

Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners, offered an institutional perspective, viewing Bitcoin as a macro asset akin to gold. A gold enthusiast who launched GBI Gold Bullion International in 2009, Tapiero entered crypto in 2012 by integrating GBI with BitReserve (now Uphold), enabling seamless gold-Bitcoin trading.

Tapiero pinpointed summer 2023 as a turning point, when BlackRock’s Larry Fink reversed his skepticism and embraced Bitcoin, culminating in the January 2024 ETF launch—the most successful in history.

“That was the pivotable moment,” Tapiero told me, noting that ETFs gave Bitcoin legitimacy, dispelling myths about its ties to illicit activities. Foreign investors, he added, interpreted the ETF as a “government-backed” stamp of approval, with some believing it was fully legalized in the U.S., boosting global confidence.

Tapiero’s funds, managing $1.5 billion, invest in growth-stage crypto companies like eToro, Deribit, and Circle, which recently conducted its IPO. “You don’t need to pay me 2 and 20 to buy Bitcoin,” he said, encouraging investors to buy it directly while his funds target companies with $40-50 million in revenue, such as exchanges and custodians, for lower volatility exposure to the crypto ecosystem.

His portfolio includes 23 companies, with board representation on 11, including recent IPOs like eToro and Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit. Looking ahead, Tapiero is excited about real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and DeFi protocols like Aave, which generate significant revenue. His fifth fund, 50T, aims to invest in growth-stage protocols where revenue accrues to tokens, not just equity.

On Bitcoin DeFi, he acknowledged the potential of Layer 2 solutions like Stacks, BitLayer, and Babylon but noted it’s “still early” with winners yet to differentiate. As a self-described “Bitcoin maximalist in a multi-chain world,” Tapiero believes Bitcoin’s proof-of-work makes it the “pristine collateral” for the broader crypto ecosystem, complementing Ethereum’s programmability and Solana’s speed. “Bitcoin is more than digital gold,” he said, but its unique security underpins its role as a foundational asset.

Tapiero also addressed institutional adoption, noting that many traditional investors still don’t own gold due to its lack of yield, making Bitcoin’s appeal as a “venture asset” more common than a currency or gold substitute. “Most institutions see it as a venture investment,” he said, predicting that initial exposure often snowballs into broader exploration of the digital asset ecosystem. He’s optimistic about the space’s growth, with over 120 companies valued above $400 million and another 100 between $100-400 million, offering ample opportunities for his growth-stage investment strategy.

A New Era for Bitcoin

Bitcoin 2025 was a testament to the asset’s evolution from a cypherpunk dream to a geopolitical and financial force. Hayes sees it riding a wave of global liquidity, Cardone envisions it as a complement to traditional assets, and Tapiero views it as a macro staple fueling a broader ecosystem.

Their insights reflect Bitcoin’s multifaceted appeal: a hedge against fiat debasement, a portfolio diversifier, and a foundation for institutional involvement. With governments, corporations, and municipalities now embracing Bitcoin, the conference underscored a reality: Bitcoin isn’t just here to stay, it’s reshaping the future of finance.