Bitcoin and big tech rally as risk appetite returns, even with ceasefire uncertainty
April 21, 2026
From volatility in short interest and surging oil prices to sudden shortages of helium and fertilizers, the conflict in the Middle East has upended a number of markets.
The fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which was announced on April 7, helped restore a tentative sense of optimism. The result has been a rally in the very stocks, sectors, and asset classes that bore the brunt of the flight to safety that began last year. In recent days, however, the picture has become more complicated as talks have appeared to wobble ahead of the ceasefire’s expected expiration tonight.
How long the rally-or, for that matter, the ceasefire-will last is yet to be seen. But for investors who are looking for indications of a potential bottoming in high-risk, high-reward assets, these recent developments could be a sign that oversold tech stocks and volatile crypto prices are poised for a sustained rebound.
Risk-on Assets Are Broadly Rallying
Take, for example, Bitcoin (BTC), which is up about 7% over the past 30 days after its price collapse over the past six months.
In the equities market, the sudden influx of risk-on sentiment has seen one of this year’s worst-performing sectors finally show signs of life. Over the past five trading sessions, tech-which remains down on the year-has led the S&P 500’s 11 sectors with a gain of nearly 5%.
Individually, the results have been more impressive, especially for members of the Magnificent Seven, with four of those seven stocks posting market-beating gains over the past week.
For NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), that has provided fuel for a rally that predates the ceasefire. Since its one-month low, shares of the semiconductor lynchpin are up over 20%. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) have also outperformed, rising more than 25%, 26%, and 31% from their respective one-month lows.
Follow the Money: Surge in Bitcoin Inflows Suggests Renewed Demand
A recent resurgence of interest in Bitcoin-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has aided the investment thesis. In the week ending April 10, Bitcoin-focused products took in $871 million-the strongest weekly total since early January, according to CoinShares. But unlike prior rallies that were backed by retail traders, these are big bets coming from institutional investors.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have, in particular, benefited from institutional buying, with some funds seeing more than $470 million in daily inflows. That has signaled a decisive shift from retail-driven uncertainty to institutional accumulation.
Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its Oct. 6, 2025, high, reflecting how quickly risk appetite can shift.
At the same time, short interest in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT)-the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with over $60 billion in assets under management-has virtually dried up.
As of March 31, just 0.95% of the float is shorted ($503 million worth of shares), a figure that is down nearly 29% over the prior month.
For context, in November 2025, $1.33 billion worth of IBIT was shorted-the most in the fund’s two-year existence.
Tech Follows Suit as Investors’ Risk Appetite Mounts
Beyond the aforementioned bounce in the Magnificent Seven stocks, lesser-known tech names are benefiting as well.
Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD), which provides large-scale digital infrastructure for data centers and Bitcoin mining solutions, has gained more than 50% from its one-month low on March 30.
That gain was mirrored by Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), which is benefiting from the ongoing shortage in memory chips. MU stock is up over 40% from its late-March low as investors have focused on memory demand tied to AI infrastructure.
Meanwhile, broad, tech-heavy index ETFs-which were dramatically oversold as recently as late March-have seen reversals of the Relative Strength Index, and subsequently, bullish price reversals.
For example, on the back of an index-weighted portfolio that provides broad exposure to the top names in the sector, the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQM) has gained nearly 11% from its year-to-date low.
There’s an ETF for That
Both tech and Bitcoin remain down on the year, with the latter’s loss remaining in the double-digits. But for investors looking to slowly dip their toes back into risk-on assets, they can achieve that with a number of ETFs.
Whether it’s the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, the NASDAQ 100 ETF, another fund providing either targeted exposure to the Magnificent Seven, or a basket of stocks capitalizing on the memory chip shortage, there are numerous ETFs that can help reintroduce higher volatility equities to investors’ portfolios while they wait to see if the current trend is likely to continue.
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