Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a bear market low near $59,000 in June, trading just 9% above its $53,600 realized price. That valuation zone has historically marked cycle bottoms.

However, on-chain analysts caution that price alone does not confirm a floor. CryptoQuant and Glassnode data point to collapsing demand and incomplete capitulation.

A June 10 CryptoQuant report described the level as a value zone rather than a confirmed bottom. Realized price reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation.

“Previous bear markets ended at prices near or marginally below the realized price, suggesting that from a pure valuation standpoint, Bitcoin may be approaching a structural floor,” CryptoQuant wrote.

However, demand data tells a different story. Total Bitcoin demand contracted by 652,000 BTC, the sharpest drop since January 2022. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also recording notable outflows, removing a key source of structural demand.

Glassnode’s latest Week On-Chain report reinforces the weak institutional demand. The Coinbase Premium stayed in discount territory as prices fell toward $60,000, signaling fading US spot demand.

Corporate treasury inflows have also dropped from peaks above $500 million per day to a fraction of their recent pace as BTC slipped toward $60,000 in June.

“The decline in accumulation suggests this cohort is becoming more cautious, removing another source of marginal demand at a time when broader market sentiment remains weak,” Glassnode stated.

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Meanwhile, capitulation also looks incomplete. Realized losses reached only 187,000 BTC, far below the 1.2 million BTC flushed out at the 2022 bottom.

According to CryptoQuant, this indicates that “the market has not yet exhausted its supply of motivated sellers.” The report, therefore, treats the level as a floor candidate until demand stabilizes.

“The bottom may be near in terms of price level, but a regime change into a bull market requires a constructive demand recovery, a condition not yet visible in the data. Until total demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation-level peaks, the current price level should be interpreted as a valuation floor candidate, not a confirmed cycle bottom,” CryptoQuant added.

Bitcoin traded near $62,753 on Thursday, up 2% over the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The token remains down 23% over 30 days and roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of over $126,000.