Odds for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting have shot up to 70%, climbing from just 39% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tracker.

The jump comes after comments soothed market concerns the Fed could leave interest rates on hold next month following stronger than expected jobs data from September.

“I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal-funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral,” New York Fed President John Williams told the Wall Street Journal.

“Looking ahead, it is imperative to restore inflation to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis. It is equally important to do so without creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal.”

The change in tone from a top Fed official comes after meeting minutes from Fed’s last meeting revealed deep divisions among policy makers and the delayed U.S. jobs data came in hot, drastically reducing the possibility of a third consecutive 25 basis point cut.

Bitcoin and crypto traders have sounded positive notes despite the souring monetary policy backdrop this week, remaining upbeat even as bitcoin charts a near-40% drawdown in just over a month.

“Bitcoin’s plunge from its October highs above $125,000 to now sitting below the $90,000 mark reflects a convergence of headwinds resulting in a sharp risk-off shift,” Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, the chief executive of Blueprint Finance, said via email.

“The downturn has been driven by tariff headlines, a stronger dollar, and a wave of forced liquidations that hit an overstretched market all at once. That said, nothing about the long-term fundamentals has changed. If anything, this kind of reset tends to clear out excess leverage and set the stage for a healthier move higher. Into year-end, I expect bitcoin to stabilize and grind back upward, with a reasonable trading range between the $95,000 and $110,000 benchmarks. If macro conditions ease and flows turn positive again, a strong price push by December is absolutely still on the table.”

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Bitcoin and crypto market watchers have also pointed to the bitcoin price struggles through 2025 as a sign the latest bull market has yet to begin.

“The bear market began in December 2024,” Andreas Brekken, founder of trading platform SideShift.ai, said in emailed comments.

“This is clear from the BTC/EUR and BTC/GOLD charts. It was disguised by historic inflation levels of the dollar. Now that we’re already seeing blood in the streets and wide-spread capitulation I expect the next bull market to begin in the first quarter of 2026.”

Others have named the Fed’s planned ending of its quantitative tightening program, designed to suck liquidity out of the system, as potentially helping to reignite the bitcoin price boom heading into 2026.

“With Fed quantitative tightening ending on December 1, the highs between August-October may prove to be just a midpoint,” Robert Le, head of research at institutional onchain asset and yield management platform Kiln, said via email.

“If bitcoin is decoupling from its programmed cadence, I think the market could be mispricing both upside potential and downside risk, and this may be the first cycle where the peak doesn’t look like a peak.”