Amid the recent bearish price action, the headline on Citigroup’s 12-month outlook for bitcoin BTC$88,206.53 of $143,000 — or about 62% upside from the current $88,000 — will raise some eyebrows.

“We forecast increased adoption of digital assets, spurred by potential U.S. digital-asset legislation in the second quarter, with bitcoin likely ranging into the new year around $80,000-$90,000 user-activity values,” Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer and Vinh Vo said in their joint report.

They said to keep an eye on the $70,000 level as key support, noting that was roughly bitcoin’s price just ahead of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.

Their base case 12 months out is for a sharp rise to $143,000, driven, they said, by revived ETF demand and positive stock market forecasts. Regulatory catalysts — in particular passage and signing of the Clarity Act (already passed in the House) — should drive further adoption and fund flows, they added.

But there’s also a bear case, and the group pegs that target at a lowly $78,500, or down more than 10% from current levels. They believe a global recession would be the catalyst.

The bull case would be $189,000, or more than doubling from current levels, and that would be thanks to increased end-investor demand, they said.