Now let’s consider it from a different angle:

This is where we could go if this downturn ends up being the classic bust phase of the bitcoin cycle, something we’ve seen many times before.

For the bull case, what can go right?

It’s quite possible that this decline is being driven by a liquidity crunch unfolding right now, sparked by the end of QT and the recent government shutdown. If that’s the case, the Fed may step in and inject liquidity into the system, which could prevent bitcoin from collapsing to the $40,000–$45,000 range – at least temporarily.

Certainly, the massive debt issuance linked to the AI build-out is probably rubbing salt into the wounds, but any liquidity injection tends to find its way into bitcoin and could push it higher again. I’d say that’s a 50/50 scenario.

A geopolitical disaster would also lift bitcoin – but that doesn’t appear to be on the horizon.

So, all in all, a year after I got out at $100,000, the drop I’ve been expecting seems to have arrived.

If bitcoin slips into the mid-$80,000s, I would be fairly certain that this the end of the cycle for bitcoin and that the crypto winter has officially begun.

It will probably look something like this:

It’s essentially 2018 overlaid onto the current chart at the appropriate scale. It may be a bold projection – not destiny – but it’s still the roadmap I’ll be following to judge whether this is truly “it.”

Now let’s consider it from a different angle:

This is where we could go if this downturn ends up being the classic bust phase of the bitcoin cycle, something we’ve seen many times before.

For the bull case, what can go right?

It’s quite possible that this decline is being driven by a liquidity crunch unfolding right now, sparked by the end of QT and the recent government shutdown. If that’s the case, the Fed may step in and inject liquidity into the system, which could prevent bitcoin from collapsing to the $40,000–$45,000 range – at least temporarily.

Certainly, the massive debt issuance linked to the AI build-out is probably rubbing salt into the wounds, but any liquidity injection tends to find its way into bitcoin and could push it higher again. I’d say that’s a 50/50 scenario.

A geopolitical disaster would also lift bitcoin – but that doesn’t appear to be on the horizon.

So, all in all, a year after I got out at $100,000, the drop I’ve been expecting seems to have arrived.

If bitcoin slips into the mid-$80,000s, I would be fairly certain that this the end of the cycle for bitcoin and that the crypto winter has officially begun.

It will probably look something like this:

It’s essentially 2018 overlaid onto the current chart at the appropriate scale. It may be a bold projection – not destiny – but it’s still the roadmap I’ll be following to judge whether this is truly “it.”

Now let’s consider it from a different angle:

This is where we could go if this downturn ends up being the classic bust phase of the bitcoin cycle, something we’ve seen many times before.

For the bull case, what can go right?

It’s quite possible that this decline is being driven by a liquidity crunch unfolding right now, sparked by the end of QT and the recent government shutdown. If that’s the case, the Fed may step in and inject liquidity into the system, which could prevent bitcoin from collapsing to the $40,000–$45,000 range – at least temporarily.

Certainly, the massive debt issuance linked to the AI build-out is probably rubbing salt into the wounds, but any liquidity injection tends to find its way into bitcoin and could push it higher again. I’d say that’s a 50/50 scenario.

A geopolitical disaster would also lift bitcoin – but that doesn’t appear to be on the horizon.

So, all in all, a year after I got out at $100,000, the drop I’ve been expecting seems to have arrived.

If bitcoin slips into the mid-$80,000s, I would be fairly certain that this the end of the cycle for bitcoin and that the crypto winter has officially begun.

It will probably look something like this:

It’s essentially 2018 overlaid onto the current chart at the appropriate scale. It may be a bold projection – not destiny – but it’s still the roadmap I’ll be following to judge whether this is truly “it.”