Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) latest move is beginning to look more like a reset than a random pullback. After the largest options expiry of the year cleared the market, the cryptocurrency slid as much as 4.3% to $65,997, its lowest level in more than two weeks. With roughly $14 billion in contracts rolling off, the removal of that positioning overhang appears to be exposing a more cautious underlying tone. At the same time, macro signals tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict are adding pressure, with some traders positioning for a prolonged war, sticky inflation, and the possibility of further rate hikes, all of which could be weighing on risk appetite.

Positioning data is starting to reflect that shift. Open interest is now heavily concentrated in $60,000 put options, suggesting traders are increasingly focused on downside protection, while the put-to-call ratio has climbed to 1.3 over the past 24 hours. Liquidations have also picked up, with about $450 million wiped out across the market during that period. Bitcoin has remained largely rangebound between roughly $60,000 and $75,000 in recent weeks, still well below its October 2025 peak near $126,000, and with the expiry now behind it, some investors suggest price action could begin to reflect broader macro trends more directly rather than short-term derivatives positioning.

The broader market backdrop is not offering much support. Global equities and bonds have come under pressure amid concerns that a prolonged conflict could keep oil prices elevated and slow growth, with Brent crude hovering near $111 and major indexes declining, including the Nasdaq 100 entering correction territory. Crypto flows are also showing signs of sensitivity to those shifts. While March has seen about $1.4 billion of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, investors pulled $171 million from spot products in a single session, and roughly $260 million exited crypto-focused ETFs more broadly, including about $140 million from the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. With Bitcoin accounting for nearly 60% of the roughly $2.3 trillion digital asset market, its next move could remain closely tied to how macro risks evolve and whether geopolitical tensions begin to ease.