00:00 Speaker A

We know that Bitcoin is cyclical, but like what’s going on here? Is it just correlated to what we’re seeing in terms of the risk off environment out there?

00:09 Speaker B

I mean, there is some of that when you hear what analysts are have been saying, but there is the debate going on right now of whether or not, uh this is part of the four-year cycle that is uh historically correlated with Bitcoin. And this has to do with the having event last year and 400 to 600 days later you would see the peak. So whether or not that is happening.

00:30 Speaker B

And and uh uh look, um that four-year cycle by the way, since the beginning of this year, uh bullish analysts have been talking about that being extended into far beyond 2026. Uh but nevertheless, Bernstein came out with a note this morning, uh basically saying that what you’re seeing right now is a short-term correction.

00:51 Speaker B

And they’re saying this because you have uh institutions that are more in into ETFs now that have grown their uh ETF holdings over the last year. So these are sort of sticky holders as as they call them. And they also talk about strategy being a a a buyer at all levels at at all prices.

01:08 Speaker B

And then you’ve got the Trump administration that has been very much uh wanting a Bitcoin uh to to prosper uh in the US. Uh the clarity Act as well, that would be a catalyst. But whether or not we’ve seen the bottom, that is really the question.

01:25 Speaker B

I mean, even Bernstein is saying that you could see a better entry point around the 80s. So they’re they’re saying that it could go down even more. Uh some other strategists have been talking about perhaps even a further uh correction, but we are more than 20% off the all-time highs and the catalyst, as you were just mentioning, what what could that be?

01:43 Speaker B

The Fed. I mean, everyone is pointing to the Fed and whether or not you’re going to see a interest rate cut in December and uh more dovishness into next year. That would be a catalyst for Bitcoin.

01:57 Speaker A

Um, I just want to mention also some news we got this morning on strategy, which you mentioned, on Monday, we tend to get the news about whether they bought more Bitcoin.

02:05 Speaker A

Guess what, they bought more Bitcoin. And this is something Michael Sailor talked about last week. There had been a report that strategy had actually sold some of his Bitcoin and he came out and said, no, that’s not the case. And indeed, in the in the latest announcement, they bought $835.6 million worth of Bitcoin in the in the last week ended Sunday.

02:26 Speaker A

Um it’s the biggest buy that they have made since July. Um and that means the total holdings uh for strategy on of Bitcoin on its balance sheet are about $61.7 billion. That was all in an SEC filing today.

02:37 Speaker A

Um they’re not funding it though, at least at this point by selling more of their shares, they’re doing preferred securities offerings. They just did one in Europe. So that looks like that’s what financed this latest buy.

02:49 Speaker A

So interesting there, Inez to see Michael Sailor, who as we know has been an indefatigable uh uh I’m not saying that word right. He’s been a big bull in Bitcoin and he’s continuing to be.

02:59 Speaker B

Yeah, yeah, and and the the question is, I mean, it’s definitely bullish anytime uh that you see Michael Sailor coming out a strategy coming out and saying that they’re buying and this has been sort of what they do along the way. Um at at all levels. Uh but the question is, are there more marginal buyers out there besides them? And and and that’s really uh the question uh for

03:16 Speaker B

some strategist have been pointing to sort of waning uh marginal buyers. Um and and again, these long-term holders that have been selling since the summertime, you know, is this part of that cycle or not? One other point that you just um just to point about strategy is also, if strategy gets included into the S&P 500, it’s an if, uh but that would happen uh if it did, we would find out in December, next uh month. So, uh that would also be a catalyst that

03:40 Speaker B

strategists have been pointing to whether or not they get included.