Bitcoin Hits $100,000 Again — But The Real Opportunity May Be In Blockchain
November 7, 2025
It’s almost a year since I bailed out of bitcoin when it was at $100,000. Now, here we are again at $100,000. Yes, I did forgo the $20,000+ upside I mentioned, but I also avoided a year of volatility and had the opportunity to use those funds to catch the wild Trump market rally.
However, there’s something else to consider. Bitcoin was roughly $69,000 at the end of 2021, so when you adjust for inflation, that level is equivalent to around $80,000 today.
So, this cycle has not produced the hoped-for classic bitcoin x10 from the previous high. If this is indeed the peak, it represents only about a 20% gain in real terms from the last cycle’s top. That’s pedestrian compared to many stocks – let alone gold.
Now, you might say that if you had bought at $20,000, near the low, you’d be up x4 – and that’s true, even if you haven’t made any progress in about a year. But that’s getting in at the bottom. Where we are now is not the bottom – it’s quite possibly the top.
So, here’s where things stand:
We’re at that magic $100,000 level, sitting at the bottom of the trend channel. You can see the previous short-term uptrends – they’re over. For the bull case to remain valid, Bitcoin needs a major rally to around $150,000; otherwise, it will likely shuffle sideways.
If it doesn’t make that rally – which I can’t see happening – boredom will set in, and down it will go. How far down? Probably between $40,000 and $60,000.
To me, Bitcoin is no longer a maverick, non-traditional asset. It’s now tied to the old financial system through futures, options, ETFs, the dollar, and Fed liquidity. Gone are the days of non-correlation and outlaw, anarcho-economics. Perhaps the four-year cycle is dead – and if it is, so are the moonshots that Bitcoin maxis evangelize about.
That, I think, is highly likely. It also means that blockchain, not cryptocurrency, could drive the next wave of innovation. We may soon see decentralized finance evolve beyond gambling and speculation toward new use cases that power real applications – not just wallets.
That would be an amazing shift if it happens. The smart money will be early to that opportunity, rather than holding on and waiting for the mythical $1 million bitcoin we’re always being promised.
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