Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) represents Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. With BTC.D, we can track Bitcoin’s relative strength within the crypto ecosystem. Its volatile movements show the underlying capital rotation patterns between Bitcoin and the altcoin market. Because of that, this metric is used to time a potential altcoin season. A steady decline in Bitcoin Dominance, especially after Bitcoin has achieved new ATHs, like it did on the 21st of May, and enters a phase of sideways price action, is a strong indicator of an upcoming altcoin season. But is it really that simple?

Altseason–What To Expect

Before we get too excited, there’s a twist. Unlike past cycles, the landscape has drastically changed. In 2017 or even 2021, there were far fewer tokens with real traction. Today, we’re talking about thousands of coins. And they are not equal. Some alts will explode, while others may barely move. The days of having everything pumped are likely behind–after all, the market has grown and matured.

Does it mean we will still see the altseason on the charts? Most likely, yes, but it’ll be different. Some analysts expect massive daily gains of up to 40% for select tokens, especially those with strong fundamentals and real utility. Think AI agents, infrastructure, interoperability, DeFi, and RWAs. These narratives are gaining steam, and projects tied to them could outperform dramatically. But again, selectivity is key. We’re matured from previous bull runs, but crypto is still a maturing market, with more data, investors, and even more skepticism.

The bottom line is that there is a pattern in capital rotation. First, investors accumulate Bitcoin during lower valuations to get an upside. Following a price rise, BTC often enters a so-called consolidation phase, where early investors may realize profits, which creates a correction on the chart. Usually, a portion of these profits is then reallocated into blue chips–highly liquid large-cap tokens like ETH, SOL, or BNB. As these large-cap altcoins appreciate, further capital rotation occurs into mid-cap and smaller-cap altcoins. This final phase often yields the most impactful percentage gains, albeit with higher risk and volatility due to lower liquidity.

And that brings us to an important point: patterns help, but don’t predict. Yes, there are historical cycles. And yes, we’ve seen similar moves before. But no two altseasons are the same. We’re not in a vacuum.