Since the Iran war began at the end of February, Bitcoin has climbed from lows of $65,000 to over $72,000. Most assumed the asset, which has never quite earned its “digital gold” reputation during genuine crises, would struggle. So far it’s doing the opposite of struggling.

JPMorgan analysts noticed something this week that’s even more interesting than the price move. Bitcoin is currently beating gold on inflows, which a month ago would have sounded like a punchline given where sentiment was sitting.

In a recent report first flagged by Yahoo Finance, JPMorgan analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou identified a “stark divergence” in capital flows between SPDR Gold Shares and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. The gold fund has bled outflows totaling roughly 2.7% of its assets under management while the Bitcoin trust has absorbed inflows equaling roughly 1.5% of its assets over the same window. Bitcoin is up almost 10% over the last five days, with 1.5% coming on Friday alone.

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This is a meaningful reversal from 2025, when gold outperformed Bitcoin by more than 63%. But historically, Bitcoin following gold isn’t unusual. In both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, Bitcoin’s biggest gains came after gold had already peaked. The 2022 to 2024 cycle saw them move in tandem before gold eventually broke out on its own.

There’s also a regulatory tailwind that may be doing more work than the geopolitical backdrop. With the GENIUS Act passed, the CLARITY Act is the remaining piece of legislation that would formally establish Bitcoin, crypto and stablecoins as a fully legitimate, government-backed asset class. That’s a narrative shift capable of moving real money before the headline risk even resolves.

The inflows suggest retail investors and RIAs aren’t waiting for a ceasefire to get positioned. They may be trying to get ahead of the next leg up before the rest of the world remembers Bitcoin exists.

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