This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) extended its decline this week, falling as much as 7.4% on Tuesday to slip below the $100,000 level for the first time since June, marking a retreat of more than 20% from its recent peak. The modest rebound on Wednesday did little to restore confidence. Unlike October’s leveraged crash, this latest downturn may be rooted in something deeper conviction fading among long-term holders. Analysts suggest the selling pressure this time reflects a fundamental shift in investor behavior rather than a technical unwind.

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According to Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, long-term investors have offloaded roughly 400,000 Bitcoin, worth around $45 billion, in the past month. He noted that so-called mega whales, those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin, began selling earlier this year, while institutional demand has weakened. K33’s Vetle Lunde added that more than 319,000 Bitcoin were reactivated from wallets dormant for six to twelve months, indicating that much of the selling represents profit-taking instead of forced liquidations. With only $2 billion in crypto positions liquidated over the past 24 hoursfar below October’s $19 billionanalysts say spot market flows are now driving direction.

Thielen believes the market could stay under pressure into next spring if this pattern continues. In the 20212022 downturn, more than one million Bitcoin were sold by large holders over nearly a year, and a similar trajectory could unfold again. While he does not anticipate a collapse, Thielen sees further downside risk, suggesting Bitcoin might consolidate lower and possibly drift toward $85,000 before regaining momentum.