Bitcoin is taking prediction market traders on a wild ride.

Just three days ago, users on Myriad—a prediction market built by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan—placed odds at 75% that Bitcoin would sooner touch $100,000 than $120,000. But today, sentiment flipped once again, with 52% now expecting BTC to reach $120,000 first.

With Bitcoin now trading around $110,000 and aggregated sentiment pulling a U-turn, should BTC traders trust the crowd? Here’s what the charts are showing:

Bitcoin is currently up 1.75% over the last 24 hours after touching lows near $107,452. The broader crypto market has clawed back from what’s become the worst October performance since 2019. So far, the market is defying historical monthly expectations: Traders got a surprising “Uptember” and now a deflating “Red October.”

Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 29—firmly in “fear” territory—while U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $366 million in outflows on Friday. Yet institutional interest hasn’t evaporated: Futures open interest remains above $150 billion per Coinglass, and analysts suggest demand has been quietly building.

So who’s right—newly bullish prediction market sentiment or the bearish market vibes?

Bitcoin daily chart: Bears still have the wheel

On the one-day timeframe, Bitcoin’s technical picture leans bearish. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 44.15—below the neutral 50 line and showing “strong” selling action. RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100, with readings below 50 suggesting sellers have more control than buyers. At 44, we’re not in oversold panic territory yet (that’s below 30), but this reading shows bears are applying consistent pressure.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, reads 27 with a “weak” status. ADX measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction—readings above 25 typically indicate a trend is forming, but it’s not strong yet. While 25 is a good starting line, this comes just after a sizable correction. Traders would ideally like to see ADX above 30 or for high-conviction moves. That’s why the “weak” label suggests the current downtrend could reverse or stall out.

Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, are the next place traders would generally look, since they provide a view of price supports and resistances over the short, medium, and longer timeframe. The 50-day EMA (average price of the last 50 days) sits above the 200-day EMA, generating a long signal. This crossover is typically bullish and suggests the longer-term trend remains upward. However, Bitcoin is currently trading below the fast-moving average, which is not ideal. Traders would find comfort in knowing that prices have at least gone back above the 200-day EMA, canceling fears of a long-term bear trend.

But this creates overhead resistance that bulls need to reclaim to shift momentum.

The Ichimoku Cloud is also telling traders that both current and anticipated support structures have failed. Bulls need to reclaim the cloud (likely around $114,000-$116,000) to invalidate this bearish setup.

Bitcoin four-hour chart: A glimmer of hope for bulls

Zoom into the four-hour timeframe and the picture brightens—slightly. Here, the RSI has climbed to 57.6 with “strong” upward action, suggesting short-term buying pressure is building. Readings above 50 show bulls regaining some control, and at 57, there’s room to run before hitting overbought territory around 70.

But the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has fired up a bullish impulse signal on the four-hour chart, and this may be enough hopium to make some bulls breathe. This suggests that while short-term momentum favors bulls, they can expect gains at least in the immediate term. Traders caught in this crossfire need to watch which signal plays out.

The fact that RSI is climbing and Squeeze is bullish suggests a price jump could materialize even if it doesn’t change the broader trend.

Moon or doom?

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: the technicals are genuinely split, which explains why prediction market odds have become so fluid. The daily chart’s bearish setup (RSI 44, Bearish Squeeze, below cloud) argues that $100,000 remains the more likely near-term destination. But the four-hour chart’s bullish divergence (RSI 57, Bullish Squeeze) and the longer-term EMA50 above EMA200 suggest any dip toward $100K could be a bear trap before the real move higher.

If forced to pick based purely on the weight of evidence today, the slight edge goes to continued consolidation or a retest of lower supports before any serious $120K attempt. The ADX readings show there’s no strong trend yet and this type of scenario requires conviction moves that aren’t present in current momentum indicators.

The prediction market’s flip from 75% “doom” to 52% “moon” likely reflects short-term oversold conditions and the fact that Bitcoin has bounced from the $107K-$108K zone. But that doesn’t mean $120K is a high-probability outcome—it might just mean traders think $100K is now less likely than it seemed three days ago.

For those holding Bitcoin, the key is likely patience and defined risk management. Don’t let shifting sentiment or short-term chart timeframes fool you into overleveraged positions. The market is telling us it hasn’t decided yet—and when Bitcoin itself is uncertain, traders should be too.