Major Bitcoin miners have sold significant BTC holdings: MARA offloaded over 15,000 BTC, Riot sold 3,700 BTC, and Cango parted with 2,000 BTC, while Bitdeer has depleted its reserves. Despite Bitcoin’s rally to $73,000, the market for Bitcoin to remain above $60,000 on April 12 is at 99.9% YES.

These large sales point to financial strain on mining firms, driven by post-halving cost pressures and rising energy expenses. The April 12 market holds at 99.9%, but the April 13 market shows a dip to 95.2% YES. Traders appear to be pricing in potential downward pressure post-peak.

The drop on April 13 tracks with concerns over the collapse of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which had temporarily boosted Bitcoin prices on geopolitical relief. Those tensions, combined with the miner BTC sell-off, signal ongoing financial stress in the industry.

Trading volume on April 13 reached $81,206 in actual USDC, with $124,620 required to move odds by 5 points, a relatively robust market. The largest move was a 2-point drop early in the morning as traders made cautious adjustments to the news.

The miners’ sell-off points to underlying vulnerabilities even as BTC holds above $60,000. At 95¢ for a YES share, traders face a 1.05x return if BTC holds above $68,000 on April 13. This bet depends on further geopolitical stability and energy cost management.

Watch for announcements from Jerome Powell or U.S.-Iran developments that could move energy prices and, by extension, Bitcoin mining profitability.

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