Moreover, over $1 billion in short positions were stacked above $77,000 heading into today, and they’re getting liquidated as the price pushes through. When shorts get forced out, they have to buy BTC to close their positions, which adds fuel to the rally on top of the organic buying. Volume across exchanges hit $53.7 billion today, up 32% from the recent average, which confirms this move has broader participation than the ceasefire rallies we saw earlier this month.

If BTC holds above $78,000 over the next few sessions, $80,000 is the next target—it’s a round psychological level and the market tends to gravitate toward those once a rally gets going. Above $80,000, $82,500 is where BTC would confirm the downtrend is over, and the next major technical target after that is $85,000.

We think $80,000 is realistic within the next week or two if oil stays below $90—but holding it depends on whether the Hormuz reopening actually lasts.

If you’ve been following the war since February, you’ve probably noticed a de-escalation pattern and market pump. The April 7 ceasefire sent BTC from $68,000 to $75,000, then the Islamabad peace talks collapsed on April 12 and Bitcoin dropped to $70,000 within 48 hours. So, it plays out in such a way that the market rallies on any news the war is cooling, but then fades when the war escalates.

Today’s Hormuz reopening has the same problem. Iran declared the strait open for the remaining period of ceasefire, which is tied to a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon. Should the truce expire without an extension, Iran could close the strait again and oil will spike back above $100. Trump has also made it clear that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place until a full peace deal is signed, so this is far from over.

However, today’s setup is stronger than April 7 in a few important ways. Over 40 countries are meeting in Paris to plan a joint mission to keep the strait open. So, that’s a new development that hasn’t happened once since the war started.

Moreover, the Israel and Lebanon ceasefire is a separate deal that gives the U.S. and Iran talks more breathing room. And oil at $85.90 is well below the $95 it hit on April 7, showing that the market clearly thinks this time is different.

$80,000 is realistic before the end of April if oil prices stay below $90. The Hormuz reopening removes the one thing that’s been holding Bitcoin back since the war started, and for the first time in seven weeks the macro is actually working in BTC’s favour rather than against it. The FOMC meets on April 28-29, and the Fed will be looking at an $85 oil price instead of $100.

So, it all comes down to whether the strait stays open beyond the ceasefire timeline. The key thing to watch is the Israel and Lebanon ceasefire and Trump’s next move on the Iran blockade. Should everything get resolved and macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin would have a real shot at hitting $80K and scaling above it before April ends.

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