Bitcoin’s BTC$109,642.95 rally has lost momentum since June, leaving prices largely rangebound above $100,000. This has emboldened some analysts who believe in the traditional four-year bitcoin cycle, warning that a tough bear market could be looming.

However, a longer-term indicator offers a glimmer of hope for bulls – the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $54,750, which is still significantly below BTC’s 2021 cycle peak of around $70,000, according to data source TradingView.

Now, you might be wondering why this matters. Well, that’s because previous bull markets have tended to end when the 200-week SMA climbs up to meet or challenge the prior cycle’s peak price. This happened in late 2017 and late 2021-early 2022.

As of now, since the 200-week SMA is still well below the 2021 price peak, historical pattern suggests that bitcoin could still be in its broader bull market phase despite recent short-term weakness.

As exciting as this “hopium” is for the bulls, it’s important to remember that it has only played out twice in bitcoin’s relatively short decade-long history and during years when institutional participation was extremely low.

Therefore, drawing firm conclusions based solely on this data may seem limited, especially in the eyes of stock investors who rely on decades of market data to identify consistent patterns.