Bitcoin is heading into November after its first negative October performance in six years, leaving investors wondering if the historic downturn signals a deeper bear trend or a healthy reset before the next leg up.

Bitcoin is down 1.4% over 24 hours and trading around $107,000, contributing to a 2.2% drop in the total crypto market cap to $3.64 trillion, per CoinGecko data. 

The sell-off triggered over $1.16 billion in long liquidations on November 3, underscoring the intensity of the recent leverage unwind.

The road so far

The month’s “Red October” occurred against a complex macroeconomic backdrop, including Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s announcement of the end of quantitative tightening and rate cuts, followed by comments that tempered expectations for a December rate cut.

The uncertainty around macroeconomic policy has pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin’s U.S.-session returns cooling significantly from 0.94% on October 29 to -4.56% over the past week, according to Velo data.

Geopolitical tensions have notably eased following the Trump-Xi agreement that de-escalated the trade war. The temporary pause averts threatened 100% tariffs and extends a delicate truce between the world’s two largest economies.

What’s next?

“So could this red October actually set up the next major leg of Bitcoin’s bull cycle? I think that’s entirely possible,” Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, told Decrypt. “Corrections like this tend to be the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than the end.”

Historical data support the optimistic interpretation, with Bitcoin’s mean return for the third quarter remaining positive at 6.05%. 

It’s also worth noting that November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, posting a mean return of 42% over the past 12 years.

“For November, I expect a period of stabilization and cautious optimism,” Lin said. “Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as markets absorb Fed commentary, but a decisive shift in tone could trigger a recovery.”

The expert maintains that if Bitcoin continues following its typical post-halving pattern, “a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach,” citing strong underlying fundamentals from ETF flows to institutional custody solutions.

Bitcoin is likely to continue a “range-higher” trajectory, Decrypt was previously told. The bullish case is also supported by strong on-chain data showing that long-term structural demand remains intact despite short-term weakness.