Bitcoin (BTC)
price during today’s (Monday’s), November 24, 2025, trading session is down 1%
and moving just below $86,000, changing hands at $85,847. However, it’s calmed
after a very turbulent period that hit on Friday when BTC plunged to just
$80,600. its lowest level in seven months and a drop of 33% from October’s
all-time high of $126,275.

Along the
way, a local support zone was created, marked by March lows between $82,000 and
$84,000. On the daily chart, a pin bar or hammer candle formed with a very long
lower wick and relatively short body, suggesting potential reversal attempt.

Although
some analysts predict we’ve drawn the final bottom of this bear trend, in my
view this is only a bull trap and declines will continue toward lower targets.
My Bitcoin price prediction: Decline to April lows and this year’s minimum in
the $74,000 range.

Follow me on X for more up-to-date analysis
and forecasts on major cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments.

Arthur
Hayes, former BitMEX co-founder and one of crypto’s most influential voices,
warns that Bitcoin may fall to $80,000 or even $85,000 before rebounding
sharply toward $200,000 or $250,000 by the end of this year. In his latest
essay published Monday, Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s retreat “from roughly
$125,000 to the low $90,000s aligns with a market grappling with tighter
financial conditions, despite U.S. equities trading near record highs.”

This
divergence, he said, suggests a credit event may be forming. Hayes described
Bitcoin as a “free-market weathervane” for future fiat liquidity,
suggesting it reacts ahead of political decision-making rather than in response
to it. “Historically, Bitcoin tends to respond to contracting liquidity
earlier than other risk assets,” he noted.

Hayes
argued that Bitcoin could “absolutely” drop to $80,000 or $85,000 if
equities decline 10-20% and Treasury yields climb toward 5%. While the Trump
administration continues advocating for looser financial conditions, he said
markets are currently following hard liquidity data, not political assurances.
“As with science, in trading it pays to have strong convictions loosely
held,” Hayes wrote, acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in his
forecast.

You can also check my previous Bitcoin and crypto articles:

Hayes’ Liquidity-Driven
Bull Case

Despite
near-term downside risks, Hayes said a sufficiently deep correction would
likely pressure U.S. policymakers to accelerate liquidity injections through
the Federal Reserve or other mechanisms. He argued that such a shift could
spark a rapid reversal in Bitcoin and drive it toward $200,000 or $250,000
before year-end.

Hayes said
he remains skeptical of Bitcoin ‘s traditional four-year cycle, arguing that new
all-time highs will only arrive once markets have sold off enough to push U.S.
policymakers into faster liquidity expansion. “I am not conceding the
four-year cycle is valid,” he wrote. Hayes said bullish investors
correctly assume U.S. policy ultimately trends toward “money
printing” during periods of financial stress.

However, he
believes “the market must first retrace gains built since April to align
with liquidity fundamentals.” Only after such a reset, he argued, will
policymakers deliver the scale of easing required to launch Bitcoin to new
record highs. Hayes has a strong track record, having accurately predicted
Bitcoin’s rise past $100,000 in 2024 and forecasting $1 million by 2028.

How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
$74K Target Before New ATH

According
to my technical analysis, at this point I don’t rule out a corrective bounce
allowing Bitcoin to return to the $92,000-$94,000 area where the 61.8%
Fibonacci resistance zone is located. This would allow strong hands to shake
out retail and some buyers, return to declines, and buy back at the mentioned
$74,000 level.

If Bitcoin
goes that low, I expect aggressive reaccumulation from whales and large
institutional players. I anticipate Bitcoin bouncing back above $100,000,
returning to an uptrend, and establishing a new ATH in the mid-term, a move
above $125,000.

Critical Technical Levels

What would
make me abandon my currently adopted scenario? Negation would primarily be a
break above the current resistance zone of $92,000-$94,000 and, ultimately, a
return to the psychological $100,000 level and the 200-day moving average (200
MA) currently just under $106,000. This would be an official trend reversal
from bearish to bullish and would negate the very strong sell signal which is
the death cross I wrote about in previous analysis.

Death Cross Confirms
Bearish Technical Structure

Bitcoin
confirmed a
death cross pattern on November 16 when its 50-day simple moving average
crossed below its 200-day simple moving average, the first such occurrence
since January 2024. This technical milestone historically signals extended
price declines and has preceded substantial drawdowns in previous cycles.

The scale
of potential losses based on historical patterns is sobering. In January 2022,
Bitcoin dropped 64% following a death cross, bottoming at $15,500 amid the FTX
crisis. Earlier cycles saw even steeper falls, with March 2018 and September
2014 recording 67% and 71% declines, respectively. Bitcoin’s weekly close below
the 50-week moving average, a historically significant bearish signal, has
prompted some analysts to assign a 60-70% probability that the cycle top is
already in.

Market Stress Indicators

• Death cross confirmed: 50-day MA crossed below
  200-day MA on November 16, first since January 2024
• Seven-month low: Friday’s $80,600
  represents lowest level since April 2025
• 33% crash: Down from October
  all-time high of $126,275
• 50-week MA broken: First time below this key
  level in current cycle
• Extreme fear: Fear & Greed Index at
  12, indicating maximum pessimism
• $800M on-chain losses: Short-term holders
  unwinding positions at losses
• Put option dominance: $80K put now most popular
  Deribit bet with $2B open interest
• ETF outflows: $4.34 billion in four
  weeks amid record trading volumes

Bitcoin Oversold Reversal
Forming

Joel
Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX Group, provided an institutional perspective
that acknowledges the severity of the selloff while maintaining a constructive
medium-term outlook. “Sentiment across the crypto complex remains deeply
depressed, and history suggests that when Bitcoin reaches oversold technical
conditions—much as it has in recent days—it often marks the early stage of a
bullish reversal,” Kruger explained.

“While
the recent pullback has been extreme, it has not altered our broader
outlook,” he continued. “As we move toward year-end, we suspect the
market will begin the process of carving out a meaningful bottom, one that
should ultimately set the stage for a broader recovery across major crypto
assets into 2026.”

Kruger
identified multiple drivers behind the weakness: “The most visible has
been the shift toward a more hawkish tone in prior Fed communications, which
briefly fueled risk-off flows and reinforced broad U.S. dollar strength. As we
have noted before, however, such periods rarely persist; the Fed has repeatedly
shown a tendency to lean back toward market expectations, and recent commentary
has already taken on a more dovish hue.”

He noted
that “the market likely became overextended after the strong wave of
adoption and regulatory progress throughout 2025, creating a natural ‘what’s
next?’ pause that invited profit-taking. This, in turn, triggered a cascade of
liquidations as over-levered positions were forced out.”

Whether
Arthur Hayes’ optimistic $250,000 year-end target or my intermediate $74,000
bearish projection materializes first will depend on Federal Reserve policy
response, the depth of any equity market correction, and whether institutional
buyers step in at current levels or wait for lower prices. As Hayes wisely
noted: “As with science, in trading it pays to have strong convictions
loosely held.”

Bitcoin Price Analysis, Frequently
Asked Questions

What is Bitcoin price
prediction for 2025?

Bitcoin
price predictions vary dramatically. Arthur Hayes forecasts $200,000-$250,000
by December 31, 2025, after a potential dip to $80,000-$85,000, driven by Fed
liquidity injections responding to market stress. According to my technical
analysis, Bitcoin will decline to $74,000 (April 2025 lows) where aggressive
whale reaccumulation occurs before rallying back above $100,000 to establish
new ATH above $125,000 in mid-term. Bearish analysts cite death cross and
50-week MA break suggesting 60-70% chance cycle top is in.

Why is Bitcoin falling
today?

Bitcoin
fell to $80,600 Friday (seven-month low) and trades at $85,847 Monday due to
death cross confirmation (50-day MA below 200-day MA on November 16), first
occurrence since January 2024. Other factors include $4.34 billion Bitcoin ETF
outflows over four weeks, $800 million on-chain losses from short-term holder
capitulation, tighter Fed liquidity conditions, Treasury yield increases,
dollar strength, and liquidation cascade from over-leveraged positions. Bitcoin
down 33% from October ATH of $126,275.

How low can Bitcoin go?

Arthur
Hayes warns Bitcoin could drop to $80,000-$85,000 if equities decline 10-20%
and Treasury yields reach 5%. According to my technical analysis, Bitcoin will
test $74,000 representing April 2025 lows and yearly minimum (161.8% Fibonacci
extension). Bearish analysts cite historical death cross outcomes: 64% drop
(2022 to $15,500), 67% (2018), 71% (2014). Options market shows $80,000 put as
most popular Deribit bet with $2 billion open interest. Key support levels:
$82,000-$84,000 (March lows, current test), $80,600 (Friday low), $74,000 (my
target).

Will Bitcoin reach
$250,000?

Yes. Arthur
Hayes believes Bitcoin can reach $200,000-$250,000 by end of 2025 if markets
sell off enough to force Fed into aggressive liquidity injections. Hayes argues
Bitcoin acts as “free-market weathervane” for future fiat liquidity,
reacting ahead of policy decisions. He said sufficient correction would
pressure policymakers to accelerate easing, sparking rapid reversal. Hayes has
strong track record, correctly predicting $100K in 2024. However, this scenario
requires market stress triggering policy response and “retracing gains
built since April to align with liquidity fundamentals.”

Is Bitcoin going to
$74,000?

According
to my technical analysis, yes, Bitcoin will test $74,000 representing April
2025 lows and this year’s minimum. This level aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci
extension and represents critical accumulation zone where I expect aggressive
whale buying.

Should I buy Bitcoin now?

No, wait until
$74K. My analysis shows $74K accumulation zone before new ATH above $125K
mid-term, Fed rate cut odds jumped to 70%. Bearish case: Death cross confirmed,
50-week MA broken first time in cycle, analysts assign 60-70% chance cycle top
is in, $800M on-chain losses, extreme fear at 12, historical death crosses
preceded 64-71% crashes. Current $86,847 may represent bull trap before further
decline to $74K.