Bitcoin demand has been quietly expanding since July, setting the stage for what could be another late-year rally to over $200,000

Apparent demand has grown at a rate of roughly 62,000 BTC per month, according to CryptoQuant, a backdrop similar to Q4 of 2020, 2021 and 2024 when prices staged sharp moves higher.

Sustained growth in demand has historically served as one of the backdrops for price rallies to occur,

Much of that expansion is being driven by whales and ETFs. Large-holder balances are rising at an annualized pace of 331,000 BTC, a stronger trend than the 255,000 BTC recorded in Q4 2024, the 238,000 BTC at the start of Q4 2020, and a sharp contrast to the 197,000 BTC contraction that marked the weaker market in 2021.

ETFs could add another layer as the products bought 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, a 71% jump in holdings, and may be positioned to increase allocations into year-end.

For that demand to translate into another breakout, momentum on the price side is still critical. On-chain valuation puts the key threshold at the Trader’s Realized Price of $116,000.

A decisive move above that level would mark the transition back into the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator and could open up a valuation band of $160,000 to $200,000 for Q4.

The indicator compares bitcoin’s current market price with several realized price metrics — the average cost basis of different groups of investors recorded on-chain.

When spot price climbs above those levels, the model interprets it as a shift into the “bull” phase, reflecting rising momentum and profits across the holder base. When spot price falls below, it flags the “bear” phase, signaling stress and unrealized losses.

Market conditions entering October look strikingly similar to last year.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has held between 40 and 50 in recent days, levels that historically mark the edge of bullish conditions. In 2024, the index broke above 50 at the start of Q4, just before bitcoin surged from around $70,000 to $100,000.

With demand metrics already strengthening, traders are watching closely for a repeat of that pattern in the months ahead.